TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,819,560
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,302,359

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,819,560 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,077 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6f72…83adbacked No21c380,519$79,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,062.69616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-75.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfffa…864bbacked No59c329,213$195,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195,415.43714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.1wins-0.45per pick59cpaid-80.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed No17c286,556$48,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,224.990%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No30c284,954$84,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,634.6551138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed No34c277,252$94,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94,817.8100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18f1…02d1backed No0c275,871$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No46c273,268$126,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126,370.248220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed No37c272,060$101,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,461.83333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes73c269,604$196,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,198.232119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-61%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No53c248,564$131,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,002.468641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No6c242,086$13,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,856.884835.4%17 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a70…52ccbacked No41c229,491$94,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94,301.891643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes61c225,581$136,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,725.383036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac31…dbcebacked Yes50c204,892$101,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103,223.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No56c200,453$112,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,367.5537740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No47c193,588$90,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90,582.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc970…b063backed No5c189,421$10,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,263.55425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes52c176,801$91,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85,326.98742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc443…f19fbacked Yes35c148,419$52,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96,319.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes68c127,706$86,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,940.3216743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed No43c120,489$51,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,486.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No49c110,160$54,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,077.2113850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bef…5377backed No0c104,403$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No0c95,760$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5810634%36 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeebf…065ebacked No0c95,410$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe88…c1f6backed Yes63c92,798$58,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,579.72785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.7wins+0.53per pick33cpaid+308.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No40c90,105$36,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,132.1342738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x305c…dc57backed No52c90,064$46,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,505.6520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No33c89,163$29,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,477.49955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked No0c85,100$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.773312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0495…9c40backed Yes35c82,673$28,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,818.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+186.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed No29c78,410$23,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,084.23425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes45c72,049$32,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,972.435141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8979…bcd6backed No39c71,737$27,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,779.442330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick33cpaid+120%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e05…e2fdbacked Yes40c71,398$28,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,127.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+152.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes52c68,237$35,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,038.178037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Yes71c67,885$48,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,868.36011.7%7 W · 53 L-6.2wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-76.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No49c67,672$33,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,377.1528750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No40c63,371$25,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,506.815836.2%21 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+73%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed No42c61,558$26,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,016.876137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No19c59,836$11,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,084.52270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes68c59,667$40,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,098.712934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick52cpaid+21.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2034…da6fbacked No0c55,590$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No30c54,803$16,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,345.736750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9ebc…ad77backed Yes39c54,422$20,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,436.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+157.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a6a…9dd2backed Yes61c53,113$32,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,811.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked No38c50,557$19,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,219.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No34c48,781$16,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,603.215354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2a…895fbacked No51c46,500$23,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,810.871513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-79.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes75c45,820$34,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,591.231533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d80…7210backed Yes57c44,344$25,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,866.56650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No33c44,126$14,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,751.325747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed No37c44,059$16,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,141.138045%36 W · 44 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No31c42,228$13,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,078.857142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf214…a9e5backed No39c41,636$16,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,220.99825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc7…8a27backed Yes59c41,429$24,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,896.163836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42dd…9398backed Yes43c41,260$17,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,315.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+129.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd5b…89f4backed No0c41,093$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes47c39,679$18,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,843.1840433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No49c39,497$19,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,220.239647.9%46 W · 50 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No11c39,379$4,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3699831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b5e…ac74backed No44c39,254$17,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,11710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61d5…4bccbacked No0c39,188$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No25c38,750$9,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,590.627247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No40c38,621$15,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,470.362055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No3c37,917$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.645635.7%20 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes59c37,431$21,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,498.851450%7 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+140.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes51c37,013$18,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,017.932429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x831e…8db9backed Yes40c36,331$14,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,780.162737%10 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed No50c35,936$17,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,948.74128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3e7…a536backed Yes67c35,121$23,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,481.752650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed No56c34,984$19,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,494.65850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+48.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fa3…dc66backed No23c34,569$7,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,966.64166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-86.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65a4…398bbacked No0c34,183$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No19c34,165$6,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,393.8335819%68 W · 290 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed No42c33,540$13,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,9354940.8%20 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79d4…6d24backed No54c33,406$18,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,192.36850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49d5…f347backed Yes40c32,714$13,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,630.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e7…b491backed Yes62c31,977$19,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,135.292373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No34c31,756$10,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,907.6514724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdcd…68babacked Yes32c31,651$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,650.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+216.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x741f…f6cabacked No0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes54c29,748$16,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,624.814352.4%75 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe301…f5c6backed No35c28,490$9,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,968.352030%6 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe722…e93dbacked No53c27,085$14,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,255.66520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes61c27,074$16,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,643.2220617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e29…740fbacked No0c26,679$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.36156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-91.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7327…b473backed Yes35c26,664$9,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,434.771656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No39c26,464$10,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,209.991353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No2c25,525$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.67825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-63.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No37c25,393$9,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,395.862339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb984…2a41backed Yes73c25,374$18,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,843.127429.7%22 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No48c25,222$12,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,125.6311141.4%46 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked No35c24,989$8,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,675.9680%0 W · 8 L-3.8wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x06d0…254fbacked Yes78c24,427$18,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,467.543033.3%10 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5983…64a8backed Yes46c24,091$11,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,908.87333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-28.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5714…c680backed Yes63c23,999$15,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,900.762544%11 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked No38c23,870$9,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,052.6610327.2%28 W · 75 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x091c…5d48backed Yes49c23,739$11,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,092.65812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-74.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x986a…4d66backed Yes48c23,404$11,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,162.93977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+68.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.