Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7949174f6cb3b0781fbd1a63a51fb7d2e72ac2d7cff1628f2c62477b64734bff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,819,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,302,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,819,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,077 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked No | 21c | 380,519$79,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79,062.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…864bbacked No | 59c | 329,213$195,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195,415.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.45per pick | 59cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…f867backed No | 17c | 286,556$48,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,224.9 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 30c | 284,954$84,635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84,634.65 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed No | 34c | 277,252$94,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94,817.8 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f1…02d1backed No | 0c | 275,871$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 46c | 273,268$126,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126,370.24 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed No | 37c | 272,060$101,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101,461.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 73c | 269,604$196,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,198.23 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 53c | 248,564$131,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131,002.46 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 6c | 242,086$13,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,856.88 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked No | 41c | 229,491$94,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94,301.89 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes | 61c | 225,581$136,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88,725.38 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac31…dbcebacked Yes | 50c | 204,892$101,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103,223.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 56c | 200,453$112,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112,367.55 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 47c | 193,588$90,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90,582.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed No | 5c | 189,421$10,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,263.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 52c | 176,801$91,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85,326.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…f19fbacked Yes | 35c | 148,419$52,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96,319.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 68c | 127,706$86,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,940.32 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed No | 43c | 120,489$51,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,486.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 49c | 110,160$54,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,077.21 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…5377backed No | 0c | 104,403$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 0c | 95,760$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked No | 0c | 95,410$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…c1f6backed Yes | 63c | 92,798$58,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,579.72 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.53per pick | 33cpaid | +308.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 40c | 90,105$36,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,132.13 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…dc57backed No | 52c | 90,064$46,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,505.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 33c | 89,163$29,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,477.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked No | 0c | 85,100$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.77 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…9c40backed Yes | 35c | 82,673$28,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,818.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 29c | 78,410$23,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,084.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 45c | 72,049$32,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,972.43 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…bcd6backed No | 39c | 71,737$27,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,779.44 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +120%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…e2fdbacked Yes | 40c | 71,398$28,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,127.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +152.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 52c | 68,237$35,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,038.17 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 71c | 67,885$48,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,868.3 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 49c | 67,672$33,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,377.15 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 40c | 63,371$25,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,506.81 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 42c | 61,558$26,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,016.87 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 19c | 59,836$11,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,084.52 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 68c | 59,667$40,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,098.71 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…da6fbacked No | 0c | 55,590$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 30c | 54,803$16,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,345.7 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…ad77backed Yes | 39c | 54,422$20,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,436.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6a…9dd2backed Yes | 61c | 53,113$32,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,811.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked No | 38c | 50,557$19,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,219.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 34c | 48,781$16,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,603.21 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…895fbacked No | 51c | 46,500$23,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,810.87 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 75c | 45,820$34,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,591.23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d80…7210backed Yes | 57c | 44,344$25,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,866.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 33c | 44,126$14,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,751.32 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed No | 37c | 44,059$16,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,141.13 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 31c | 42,228$13,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,078.85 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf214…a9e5backed No | 39c | 41,636$16,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,220.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc7…8a27backed Yes | 59c | 41,429$24,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,896.16 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…9398backed Yes | 43c | 41,260$17,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,315.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5b…89f4backed No | 0c | 41,093$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 47c | 39,679$18,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,843.18 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 49c | 39,497$19,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,220.23 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 11c | 39,379$4,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,369 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…ac74backed No | 44c | 39,254$17,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,117 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d5…4bccbacked No | 0c | 39,188$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 25c | 38,750$9,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,590.62 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 40c | 38,621$15,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,470.36 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 3c | 37,917$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.64 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes | 59c | 37,431$21,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,498.85 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed Yes | 51c | 37,013$18,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,017.93 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 40c | 36,331$14,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,780.16 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed No | 50c | 35,936$17,949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,948.74 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…a536backed Yes | 67c | 35,121$23,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,481.75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed No | 56c | 34,984$19,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,494.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…dc66backed No | 23c | 34,569$7,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,966.64 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…398bbacked No | 0c | 34,183$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 19c | 34,165$6,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,393.83 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 42c | 33,540$13,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,935 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…6d24backed No | 54c | 33,406$18,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,192.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…f347backed Yes | 40c | 32,714$13,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,630.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed Yes | 62c | 31,977$19,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,135.29 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 34c | 31,756$10,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,907.65 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdcd…68babacked Yes | 32c | 31,651$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,650.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741f…f6cabacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 54c | 29,748$16,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,624.8 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed No | 35c | 28,490$9,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,968.35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…e93dbacked No | 53c | 27,085$14,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,255.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 61c | 27,074$16,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,643.22 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…740fbacked No | 0c | 26,679$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -91.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…b473backed Yes | 35c | 26,664$9,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,434.77 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 39c | 26,464$10,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,209.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 2c | 25,525$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 37c | 25,393$9,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,395.86 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 73c | 25,374$18,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,843.12 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 48c | 25,222$12,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,125.63 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 35c | 24,989$8,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,675.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…254fbacked Yes | 78c | 24,427$18,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,467.54 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…64a8backed Yes | 46c | 24,091$11,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,908.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5714…c680backed Yes | 63c | 23,999$15,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,900.76 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 38c | 23,870$9,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,052.66 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091c…5d48backed Yes | 49c | 23,739$11,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,092.65 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…4d66backed Yes | 48c | 23,404$11,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,162.93 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.