Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa40abd8482aac92bfbd4543eda0822056e78a1a0b550d81fce3991bdc051f06a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $368,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $300,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 316 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 22c | 18,555$4,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,049.62 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 15,565$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.11 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 19c | 14,208$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.78 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 71c | 12,714$9,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,699.27 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…48b7backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 72c | 8,650$6,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,391.32 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 2c | 6,857$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 16c | 6,583$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.46 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 3c | 6,143$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.55 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3027…fbebbacked Yes | 15c | 5,995$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.67 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…f15bbacked Yes | 18c | 5,643$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 19c | 5,245$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.29 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25df…6fffbacked Yes | 20c | 4,845$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.96 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 19c | 4,518$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.34 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 1c | 4,450$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 36c | 4,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked Yes | 9c | 3,900$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.71 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x119d…85abbacked Yes | 3c | 3,839$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe663…6462backed Yes | 39c | 3,838$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 7c | 3,760$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ee…0ababacked Yes | 35c | 3,420$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.29 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d0…636dbacked Yes | 30c | 3,360$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…1380backed Yes | 8c | 3,231$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…ee2ebacked No | 74c | 3,201$2,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.06 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1115…feb2backed Yes | 15c | 3,031$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.94 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a39…5077backed Yes | 37c | 2,925$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e6…beb9backed Yes | 7c | 2,917$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,856$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.31 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 24c | 2,818$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…bf9abacked Yes | 12c | 2,581$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…9379backed Yes | 43c | 2,525$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 74c | 2,507$1,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.97 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cab…6817backed Yes | 8c | 2,500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed No | 61c | 2,347$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 57c | 2,209$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.94 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed No | 69c | 2,206$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.32 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 11c | 2,187$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.19 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +279.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 2,175$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 19c | 2,080$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.15 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.68 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…96a5backed No | 73c | 1,929$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.16 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…1102backed Yes | 10c | 1,927$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2083…962ebacked No | 75c | 1,788$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…dc1ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,702$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 12c | 1,668$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed No | 67c | 1,655$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.84 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48ae…2324backed Yes | 9c | 1,652$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.39 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…7b42backed No | 67c | 1,646$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 77c | 1,622$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.64 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…279fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,536$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 20c | 1,491$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.43 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 15c | 1,481$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.17 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 35c | 1,472$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.24 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +156.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 38c | 1,404$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…8e3bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,399$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2820…2193backed Yes | 8c | 1,339$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 65c | 1,315$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.81 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…400bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,311$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 65c | 1,300$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 26c | 1,250$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.5 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 26c | 1,154$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 34c | 1,141$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.73 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes | 29c | 1,130$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked No | 72c | 1,036$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.61 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68e2…106abacked Yes | 6c | 1,025$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 14c | 1,014$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.49 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed No | 67c | 991.56$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…8845backed Yes | 40c | 959.17$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf502…0336backed Yes | 15c | 928.37$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked No | 59c | 925.46$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.94 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 11c | 917.9$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 900$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…c8c8backed No | 70c | 899.02$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.71 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 65c | 723.13$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.52 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 72c | 719.04$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.14 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 33c | 702.05$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.22 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…7213backed No | 64c | 700.61$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…525abacked Yes | 35c | 662.52$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.21 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 4c | 650$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb36…09f3backed Yes | 2c | 640.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…980bbacked Yes | 9c | 640.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 64c | 635.51$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.13 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed Yes | 14c | 631.6$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ce…c203backed Yes | 7c | 606.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…06a2backed Yes | 15c | 582$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x543e…8253backed Yes | 17c | 572.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9f…a52bbacked Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758c…074abacked Yes | 25c | 547.03$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.28 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 63c | 538.14$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.14 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…b571backed Yes | 34c | 526.64$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.9 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…42debacked Yes | 21c | 523.87$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd029…e7afbacked Yes | 10c | 520$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 10c | 500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 15c | 500$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 75c | 500$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 71c | 500$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.