TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$368,174
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$300,262

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,174 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 316 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes22c18,555$4,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,049.623619.4%7 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes6c15,565$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.11567.1%4 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes19c14,208$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.788037.5%30 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked No71c12,714$9,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,699.2712245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42dd…48b7backed Yes0c11,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No72c8,650$6,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,391.3237740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes2c6,857$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1292528%7 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick15cpaid+46%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a15…0246backed Yes16c6,583$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.462020%4 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes3c6,143$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.55726.9%5 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3027…fbebbacked Yes15c5,995$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.672326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x26e8…f15bbacked Yes18c5,643$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes19c5,245$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.298139.5%32 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25df…6fffbacked Yes20c4,845$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.961631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-29.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes19c4,518$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.3419639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes1c4,450$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.032030%6 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes36c4,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4401931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-46.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd49b…83efbacked Yes9c3,900$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.715422.2%12 W · 42 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x119d…85abbacked Yes3c3,839$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe663…6462backed Yes39c3,838$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x645e…d120backed Yes7c3,760$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2582114.3%3 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-76.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe5ee…0ababacked Yes35c3,420$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.292548%12 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+32.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99d0…636dbacked Yes30c3,360$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fab…1380backed Yes8c3,231$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe900…ee2ebacked No74c3,201$2,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.063036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1115…feb2backed Yes15c3,031$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.941533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a39…5077backed Yes37c2,925$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e6…beb9backed Yes7c2,917$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes9c2,856$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.3136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes24c2,818$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7f…bf9abacked Yes12c2,581$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.31333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb64e…9379backed Yes43c2,525$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No74c2,507$1,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.9751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cab…6817backed Yes8c2,500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.65955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes6c2,500$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5581.7%1 W · 57 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-93.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed No61c2,347$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.51758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+116.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No57c2,209$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.9420549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed No69c2,206$1,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$687.321752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes11c2,187$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.19825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+279.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes4c2,175$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.21663%2 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-95.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Yes19c2,080$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.155032%16 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes7c2,000$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.682821.4%6 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec8…96a5backed No73c1,929$1,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.165644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08a4…1102backed Yes10c1,927$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2083…962ebacked No75c1,788$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.681947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15c5…dc1ebacked Yes29c1,702$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x247d…7d27backed Yes12c1,668$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed No67c1,655$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.8411350.4%57 W · 56 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x48ae…2324backed Yes9c1,652$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.39110%0 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5858…7b42backed No67c1,646$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.71966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No77c1,622$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.645635.7%20 W · 36 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58a3…279fbacked Yes8c1,536$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes20c1,491$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.434619.6%9 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes15c1,481$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.1713746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes35c1,472$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.246633.3%22 W · 44 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+156.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a50…ff53backed Yes38c1,404$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.961233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…8e3bbacked Yes4c1,399$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2820…2193backed Yes8c1,339$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No65c1,315$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.816053.3%32 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62d2…400bbacked Yes22c1,311$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No65c1,300$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4533847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed Yes26c1,250$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.56434.4%22 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed Yes26c1,154$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007741.6%32 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes34c1,141$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.737337%27 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes29c1,130$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.91020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked No72c1,036$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.611656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x68e2…106abacked Yes6c1,025$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.670%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed Yes14c1,014$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.493036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed Yes8c1,000$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.713141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41031241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6994…7112backed No67c991.56$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.941154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+66.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ad6…8845backed Yes40c959.17$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3871330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf502…0336backed Yes15c928.37$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked No59c925.46$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.942045%9 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes11c917.9$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.817530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd031…7d2ebacked No61c900$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3511100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84c6…c8c8backed No70c899.02$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.711450%7 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+140.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No65c723.13$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.525749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No72c719.04$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.1428750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes33c702.05$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.228834.1%30 W · 58 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9d…7213backed No64c700.61$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.57560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b9…525abacked Yes35c662.52$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.211533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes4c650$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284912.2%6 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb36…09f3backed Yes2c640.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da1…980bbacked Yes9c640.33$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1890%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No64c635.51$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.1331649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x650d…c383backed Yes14c631.6$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85ce…c203backed Yes7c606.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32a3…06a2backed Yes15c582$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x543e…8253backed Yes17c572.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d9f…a52bbacked Yes7c571.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x758c…074abacked Yes25c547.03$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.283016.7%5 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+82.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No63c538.14$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.146129.5%18 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bba…b571backed Yes34c526.64$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.93622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab0…42debacked Yes21c523.87$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.95742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd029…e7afbacked Yes10c520$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes10c500$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5115324.8%38 W · 115 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes15c500$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No75c500$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.3944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No71c500$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1438763.2%55 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.