TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x32a3…06a2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-33.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.44
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+123.9%+$95.83
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.85
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+43.4%+$30.08
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$17.33
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+39.4%+$75.81
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$284Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+62.1%+$176.22
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-68.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.53
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$214Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$213.55
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20.89
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$35.5
Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.52
Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$160
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will TikTok be banned again before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$145.17
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+311.7%+$373.07
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+46.6%+$46.61
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$32.86
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$58.73
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$96
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$418Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$124.76
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$87.3
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+49.3%+$32.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$91.48
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.