TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$890,840
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$572,075

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $890,840 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0190…be5abacked Yes2c40,773$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c36,418$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.842560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c31,005$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.186291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a95…6a76backed Yes8c26,720$2,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,112.66728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-42%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa60d…e653backed Yes20c24,549$5,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,001.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e62…cf17backed Yes1c20,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1803…de56backed Yes18c15,033$2,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,772.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf31a…838bbacked Yes3c13,165$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-69.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1a14…2f5cbacked Yes39c12,769$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x333c…f9dfbacked Yes1c11,984$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…fb05backed Yes10c10,980$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c10,600$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.61051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0112…c9b9backed Yes13c10,328$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes2c10,203$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.624315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d4…e4a8backed Yes7c10,193$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c9,016$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.8157426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c8,466$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.171,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62e4…d44ebacked Yes10c7,913$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9dc…528fbacked Yes6c7,506$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes8c7,405$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.891910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf05b…1b9dbacked Yes14c7,331$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf292…ee2dbacked Yes8c7,232$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes3c7,171$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232140%0 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c7,162$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.01821.2%1 W · 81 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe158…9d56backed Yes4c6,580$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.14137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-88.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc35f…f5fcbacked Yes5c6,519$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda31…2966backed Yes9c6,441$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.431010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-75%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x808e…1c51backed Yes14c6,265$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa47b…0e8bbacked Yes18c6,143$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes1c5,183$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.159915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes1c5,178$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.365221.2%11 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-63.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65f5…e83cbacked Yes2c5,050$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33b2…cecdbacked Yes9c5,030$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9506…1cd8backed Yes1c5,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaf0…1179backed Yes1c5,000$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf746…9915backed Yes2c4,951$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af6…a11abacked Yes11c4,823$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c4,662$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.52110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0882…1526backed Yes1c4,580$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7784…0455backed Yes14c4,405$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c4,337$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6915615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x267c…9b16backed Yes8c4,306$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.82560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x748f…f6e5backed Yes4c4,061$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.53425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c4,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16460%0 W · 46 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd398…f00bbacked Yes3c3,940$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-45%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe63c…176cbacked Yes15c3,892$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c3,771$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.787510.7%8 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e76…83b3backed Yes11c3,492$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2b1…c458backed Yes1c3,369$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes13c3,103$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.2740712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes5c3,061$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.1910933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes6c3,017$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.874353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c2,693$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8330127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…8a39backed Yes2c2,662$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x397e…93b8backed Yes2c2,502$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a40…d801backed Yes4c2,363$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x430c…0c89backed Yes13c2,341$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.03714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fe6…b39ebacked Yes12c2,325$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.332948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31be…c9debacked Yes10c2,251$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed Yes2c2,243$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.75817.2%10 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes1c2,060$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.926841.2%28 W · 40 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+54.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbe29…3c2abacked Yes2c2,056$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf699…c666backed Yes4c2,000$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes3c1,984$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.046428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58ff…2e8cbacked Yes6c1,818$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.64166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick21cpaid-91.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x787e…df93backed Yes4c1,793$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49aa…917abacked Yes6c1,760$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc12…ce48backed Yes12c1,703$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef38…ab9ebacked Yes3c1,652$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb04d…12d3backed Yes6c1,627$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b17…6da6backed Yes11c1,626$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb018…8891backed Yes1c1,577$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick39cpaid-13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x470d…6f37backed Yes4c1,542$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2263…4e26backed Yes7c1,539$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1091020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-72.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Yes13c1,526$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.1160%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ab4…404abacked Yes7c1,452$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.59425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+101.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa510…969ebacked Yes7c1,434$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes4c1,387$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.822218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0db2…4ab1backed Yes3c1,368$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd21…93e7backed Yes15c1,361$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes3c1,360$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446829.4%20 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x48d3…34bebacked Yes1c1,348$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ac…84f3backed Yes1c1,347$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-75%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2aa…93e9backed Yes2c1,239$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fec…017ebacked Yes2c1,226$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes2c1,206$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.032218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes12c1,201$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.141421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda31…8e56backed Yes11c1,200$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeeee…6554backed Yes2c1,162$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b7…5e68backed Yes4c1,151$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa76f…3445backed Yes11c1,113$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ae…a367backed Yes2c1,095$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes5c1,090$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.984422.7%10 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a63…6ef7backed Yes2c1,078$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x295d…5cbcbacked Yes3c1,034$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f42…233bbacked Yes2c1,033$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+124.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Yes10c1,015$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-55.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x401b…3107backed Yes3c1,009$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes2c977.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.952740.7%11 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a11…33f5backed Yes5c929.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.