AI · resolved market
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda0d31596190c1cdc6c08e71d1ac446d490ed399acf8ac7b1d9954c00e3166fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $356,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $356,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 51,704$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 27,422$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 23,999$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 16,000$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.96 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…528fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c3…490bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,873$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 7,870$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…2370backed Yes | 0c | 7,353$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,315$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Yes | 2c | 5,315$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612b…b036backed Yes | 0c | 5,070$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…520abacked Yes | 3c | 4,070$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…8019backed Yes | 3c | 3,123$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.63 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 2c | 2,338$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d9…bb87backed Yes | 5c | 2,238$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 19cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…3f40backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 4c | 771.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 2c | 760.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 554.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8128…e88dbacked Yes | 3c | 354.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…8885backed Yes | 6c | 256$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on May 31?this page
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on May 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.