AI · resolved market
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2199517d0809dedbee3c149638c8f834b0ee33c2ae6c6b7bf8053957795377d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $631,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $364,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $631,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe7e…c200backed Yes | 4c | 69,636$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800.48 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 38,861$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.36 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…6f37backed Yes | 1c | 38,120$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 22,989$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 0c | 20,449$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 1c | 18,029$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.73 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 17,219$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.28 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 15,467$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes | 1c | 12,266$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.87 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e31…e1cebacked Yes | 8c | 11,993$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 9,651$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f5…8109backed Yes | 1c | 7,878$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49aa…917abacked Yes | 4c | 5,513$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,948$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 6c | 4,699$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.26 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…4e6ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,690$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…440abacked Yes | 2c | 4,607$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 4,603$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 1c | 3,819$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -69%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 2c | 3,641$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.39 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,861$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…ddcbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,595$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x020f…b759backed Yes | 0c | 2,513$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…3c2abacked Yes | 3c | 2,400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c6…8019backed Yes | 1c | 2,336$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 1c | 2,309$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,920$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,871$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d3…fab3backed Yes | 1c | 1,826$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b7…5e68backed Yes | 1c | 1,769$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…fbcabacked Yes | 2c | 1,652$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed Yes | 5c | 1,619$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…6a5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,504$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,382$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3ad7backed Yes | 2c | 1,271$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d9…bb87backed Yes | 10c | 1,041$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 19cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa300…448abacked Yes | 8c | 1,015$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 5c | 999.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 2c | 996.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +310.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 3c | 986.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0034…1767backed Yes | 3c | 957.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +183.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa768…eb1bbacked Yes | 2c | 907.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 3c | 840.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f3…2c8ebacked Yes | 2c | 811$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8de…0401backed Yes | 2c | 779.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 763.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401b…3107backed Yes | 2c | 738.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31be…c9debacked Yes | 3c | 687.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aeb…39c8backed Yes | 8c | 679.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f0…3800backed Yes | 3c | 653$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…017ebacked Yes | 3c | 650$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…a08cbacked Yes | 11c | 545.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac30…0a39backed Yes | 2c | 525.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…d77ebacked Yes | 15c | 523$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…cb81backed Yes | 2c | 512.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 512.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…c3c1backed Yes | 3c | 414.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b2…239bbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a4…543fbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…ecc4backed Yes | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…9c1abacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…47debacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…e310backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fecfbacked Yes | 7c | 265.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…eca5backed Yes | 12c | 264.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ae…f010backed Yes | 6c | 216.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 144$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x325c…f675backed Yes | 10c | 142.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…55b4backed Yes | 11c | 102.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on May 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on May 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.