TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$606,548
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$418,037

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $606,548 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 247 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes1c31,519$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.21631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c30,305$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.22560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes4c23,817$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.766291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3498…5088backed Yes10c20,779$2,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,072.3740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7472…4febbacked Yes23c19,308$4,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,352.53650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5587…5200backed Yes14c18,821$2,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,562.581040%4 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe7e…c200backed Yes20c17,229$3,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,431.651216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes16c16,013$2,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,540.171910.5%2 W · 17 L-5.0wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-86.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c10,046$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.615615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5485…ea39backed Yes1c9,297$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048a…eb07backed Yes23c9,255$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.394117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee55…0020backed Yes4c9,108$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.8440%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a95…6a76backed Yes5c8,752$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.13728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-42%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fbb…377abacked Yes23c7,331$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,661.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes8c7,016$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.949915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes5c6,989$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.611910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2263…4e26backed Yes4c6,132$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.531020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-72.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes2c5,716$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.839041.1%37 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e21…1751backed Yes4c5,528$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.06837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ff…9bcbbacked Yes4c5,209$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23ad…ea4dbacked Yes20c5,140$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x470d…6f37backed Yes5c4,793$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes1c4,753$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.982920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c4,550$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.531,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes4c4,440$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.75229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf31a…838bbacked Yes9c4,412$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.92520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-69.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0034…1767backed Yes6c4,251$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.221926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+183.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No79c4,074$3,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.824353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3899…452ebacked Yes27c3,921$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.93825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes1c3,789$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4370%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes7c3,770$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.164422.7%10 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x106f…83d5backed Yes1c3,652$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.952142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe63c…176cbacked Yes3c3,625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc12…ce48backed Yes3c3,296$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d40…d6debacked Yes13c3,123$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c2,966$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.5357426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No79c2,932$2,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.132740.7%11 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xee75…88dabacked Yes27c2,767$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.07147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid+50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1574…9ebabacked Yes3c2,756$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes24c2,739$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.033240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24d4…e4a8backed Yes7c2,710$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes4c2,652$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.148644.2%38 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a63…6ef7backed Yes1c2,610$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc381…f141backed Yes17c2,287$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa416…025ebacked Yes11c2,287$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-57.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcac9…4cd8backed Yes12c2,183$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a30…906ebacked Yes5c2,007$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3aaa…7f26backed Yes4c2,000$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c1,992$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.1140712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xefc2…8df3backed Yes9c1,931$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb8c2…ce98backed Yes3c1,913$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf171…749dbacked Yes11c1,872$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes8c1,854$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f7f…5823backed Yes4c1,852$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c35…1788backed Yes8c1,687$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes5c1,627$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.321346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes13c1,624$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes4c1,591$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6850%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf0…1179backed Yes5c1,500$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0de7…183cbacked Yes12c1,500$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes4c1,500$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c6…8019backed Yes4c1,481$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.21010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-85.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x437c…2370backed Yes4c1,399$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd6c…c302backed Yes11c1,380$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.61723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1c6…b145backed Yes6c1,359$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…8a39backed Yes1c1,260$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No78c1,252$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.636041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x880c…440abacked Yes8c1,250$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.742416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5067…45a2backed Yes8c1,236$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b7…5e68backed Yes4c1,235$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0753…25b2backed Yes4c1,231$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.951926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd21…93e7backed Yes2c1,215$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes2c1,203$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.322218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes23c1,183$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.910933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b0c…cebebacked Yes8c1,140$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd398…f00bbacked Yes4c1,114$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.04812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-45%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa782…8457backed Yes38c1,111$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No75c1,094$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.426716.4%11 W · 56 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f00…7addbacked Yes17c1,093$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.553327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-41.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2602…8426backed Yes4c1,086$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7458…fecfbacked Yes21c1,058$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.671816.7%3 W · 15 L-5.1wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-77.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5eda…5ae4backed No79c1,041$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.96650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes3c1,001$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.034969.4%34 W · 15 L+9.0wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3216backed Yes6c1,000$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.98714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes18c999.99$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick11cpaid+31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4621…efccbacked Yes14c999.98$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Yes3c999.95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.82520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-73.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Yes25c999$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.753842.1%16 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+114.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x416e…64a8backed Yes26c946.52$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes15c941.42$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.1111030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes6c938.57$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb9…74bfbacked No72c938.24$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.181172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked Yes17c936.56$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.842245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7784…0455backed Yes5c930.69$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes25c926.15$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.126841.2%28 W · 40 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+54.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8f50…96bdbacked Yes6c893.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-71.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x388b…1343backed Yes3c888.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f0e…fc1bbacked Yes3c881$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1650%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes4c864.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.747510.7%8 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.