TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$743,281
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$449,780

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $743,281 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c38,994$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.452560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c32,654$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.616291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c23,494$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.992920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes9c14,859$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.246841.2%28 W · 40 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+54.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes2c13,138$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.38140%0 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes3c12,366$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.279915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2681…5313backed Yes1c12,311$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb04d…12d3backed Yes1c11,639$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5485…ea39backed Yes1c11,440$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c8…160ebacked Yes0c11,303$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7764…6dacbacked Yes1c10,608$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes1c10,558$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.413414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x333c…f9dfbacked Yes4c8,956$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e71…0db4backed Yes8c8,843$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c7,595$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.991,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e14…c78cbacked Yes1c7,350$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e7…2556backed Yes4c7,098$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4b3…848ebacked Yes7c6,971$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x787d…d2c8backed Yes1c6,715$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27b7…5e68backed Yes2c6,548$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc64f…3577backed Yes2c6,445$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c6,281$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.92110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x797c…d057backed Yes1c6,054$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88ab…9774backed Yes4c5,641$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes2c5,392$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.231910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c5,270$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.1557426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49aa…917abacked Yes5c5,140$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aaa…7f26backed Yes1c5,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13f5…8109backed Yes2c4,419$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes5c4,365$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.3230127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e12…8fe1backed Yes3c4,182$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes3c4,100$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.51051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes4c3,776$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.896428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee6…b5bcbacked Yes24c3,750$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.771717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+261.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes9c3,750$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.85221.2%11 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-63.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe29…3c2abacked Yes4c3,685$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes2c3,678$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a30…906ebacked Yes3c3,664$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c3,525$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.031502.7%4 W · 146 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcdd…e689backed Yes3c3,201$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes5c3,068$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.3619834.8%69 W · 129 L-23.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4086…c7fcbacked Yes2c2,892$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabd8…1228backed Yes4c2,828$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11650%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…ddcbbacked Yes2c2,756$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3531…d848backed Yes4c2,589$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5322…ba70backed Yes1c2,446$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked Yes8c2,424$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.084353.5%23 W · 20 L+4.4wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes6c2,195$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.982740.7%11 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x46ef…9686backed Yes2c2,124$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x445a…7fc4backed Yes5c2,115$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b02…393ebacked Yes5c2,108$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x914c…cdc3backed Yes5c2,096$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46bd…7e8bbacked Yes5c2,067$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0288…f8a2backed Yes1c2,008$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a95…6a76backed Yes1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-42%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick11cpaid+31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e6…e838backed Yes1c1,985$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes10c1,906$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.556041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73b9…ecc4backed Yes2c1,900$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes2c1,849$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.91346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7040…81fabacked Yes3c1,788$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1c2…b65fbacked Yes1c1,657$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6725…fa50backed Yes5c1,646$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a3…9dcdbacked Yes5c1,639$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.51338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes4c1,626$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5815615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e2a…2a29backed Yes4c1,600$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.82075%15 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9812…2653backed Yes2c1,556$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes2c1,549$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07e7…a343backed Yes3c1,541$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.72185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-93.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ce6…e1b0backed Yes1c1,540$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8422…a1ebbacked Yes13c1,539$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-86.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26bd…15fbbacked Yes1c1,528$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47aa…09e9backed Yes2c1,518$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ea…4f5dbacked Yes1c1,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75f1…072ebacked Yes1c1,495$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.26520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bb8…3b9fbacked Yes2c1,495$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c1,450$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.987510.7%8 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes2c1,436$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a3…cd82backed No71c1,395$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.17837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-45.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes33c1,362$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.877951.9%41 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No67c1,338$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.332147.6%10 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22fb…8a39backed Yes2c1,291$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes2c1,220$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.750%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880c…440abacked Yes7c1,200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.912416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3832…7044backed Yes7c1,128$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdf…dc4abacked Yes2c1,115$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x334a…57aabacked Yes2c1,105$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7458…fecfbacked Yes30c1,058$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.451816.7%3 W · 15 L-5.1wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-77.7%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x8373…28a5backed Yes2c1,052$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4490…1589backed Yes3c1,047$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x470d…6f37backed Yes3c1,029$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2417…5d1ebacked Yes3c1,028$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-82%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x401b…3107backed Yes3c1,023$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3ea1…4e6ebacked Yes2c1,003$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3127…40d4backed Yes1c1,003$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf699…c666backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x796d…c501backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38ff…5cddbacked Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaf8…9dc1backed Yes2c999.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.981145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+58.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes3c984.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1824315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.