TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,931,024
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,297,302

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,931,024 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 481 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb2b8…77bfbacked No0c104,955$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf419…9728backed No42c103,957$43,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,638.0840%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1665…e651backed No0c84,442$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe884…314fbacked No0c52,611$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x674a…0963backed No0c31,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes49c30,532$15,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,452.218231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7c…357dbacked Yes66c30,354$20,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,172.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf14c…6017backed No0c26,222$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82de…092ebacked No0c25,130$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3767…7dcebacked No0c25,007$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05fb…71a6backed No0c23,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e0…7d46backed Yes41c20,368$8,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,954.81353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ad…be8cbacked Yes44c20,115$8,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,273.41450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb70…580dbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9373…9014backed No4c19,336$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c7b…2a87backed Yes30c17,614$5,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,341.64933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+95.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x027f…839abacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f00…96ecbacked No1c13,080$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x855d…87b5backed No0c12,517$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x124e…9594backed No0c12,400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a1b…722abacked Yes44c12,220$5,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,875.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91a9…ec28backed No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0a…53fbbacked No0c10,961$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4c…d9e9backed No0c10,877$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cd8…8de1backed No0c10,806$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No3c10,589$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.0919236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…4e96backed No0c10,240$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa92…5899backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a96…7508backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-87.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa469…e73fbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x929e…1a08backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9436…21eebacked No0c9,793$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No3c9,453$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.0211010%11 W · 99 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-32%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6238…5f13backed Yes37c9,242$3,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,801.961145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No30c8,290$2,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,487.093754.1%20 W · 17 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+55%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No10c8,218$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.843831.6%12 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+157.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ab0…8ecdbacked No0c8,047$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No67c7,313$4,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,893.3516544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc701…920ebacked Yes38c7,024$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,323.971233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfee…64bbbacked No75c6,144$4,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,612.371233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-50.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b21…deb6backed No62c5,875$3,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,643.59728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick62cpaid-41.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a59…dbeabacked No1c5,556$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b01…a8cabacked No0c5,502$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14c3…df68backed No3c5,489$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.811145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes30c5,380$1,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,779.2433313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200e…28f9backed Yes33c5,023$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,377.8425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed No0c5,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1583…aef6backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No3c5,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16014135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes19c4,823$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,920.911936.1%43 W · 76 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb242…c70dbacked No8c4,724$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68d8…af58backed No60c4,132$2,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4901136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe46e…c07dbacked No1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x626d…ff68backed Yes38c3,940$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,423.85520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-48%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed No6c3,862$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.565642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No73c3,655$2,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,66210055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b51…5868backed Yes42c3,546$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,042.45728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No54c3,515$1,902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,901.981136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32a3…06a2backed No1c3,481$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.891020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-68.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No1c3,428$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.816530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes40c3,344$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,007.34626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c3,183$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.191,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbc…5196backed No4c3,169$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5419…38f6backed No1c3,152$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No34c3,032$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.1314230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa57b…32ddbacked No1c3,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes47c3,000$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.867146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No2c2,917$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.262119%4 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked No2c2,809$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3727…0b44backed No4c2,747$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick5cpaid+37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No12c2,339$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.436230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0ba…b3f9backed No63c2,284$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.951758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes54c2,268$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.21546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c60…9c5ebacked No6c2,241$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc7…0a2bbacked No7c2,227$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9d9…5670backed Yes28c2,211$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.11560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+35.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes43c2,090$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.984850%24 W · 24 L+9.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+346.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9a6c…40f7backed Yes33c2,074$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+49.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd28…2aefbacked No2c2,067$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.941729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick19cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No2c2,056$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.41277.4%2 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd85…231bbacked No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes43c2,000$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.515925.4%15 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6032626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No73c1,925$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.55158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b44…264ebacked Yes25c1,904$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,428.053560%21 W · 14 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+85.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x09f0…1e82backed No6c1,900$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa16c…910bbacked No5c1,781$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Yes37c1,758$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.664814.6%7 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28a2…05e7backed No1c1,650$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.651533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick15cpaid+180.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6a2…ce8fbacked Yes31c1,630$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+226.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes37c1,626$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.35743.9%25 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x925b…640ebacked No2c1,623$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes31c1,620$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.427038.6%27 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x769c…3d88backed No27c1,567$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Yes55c1,560$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9ed…1db7backed No2c1,545$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No21c1,522$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.624942.9%21 W · 28 L+12.8wins+0.26per pick17cpaid+218.5%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed No50c1,501$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.441250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked No6c1,500$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes42c1,500$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8704156.1%23 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.