AI · resolved market

Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc76a6112f2daf6d0626a0c1c73b51af958af07695053db40ec54c621904b0996

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 31, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,376,936
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,087,005

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,376,936 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 691 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes	0c	90,600$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.58	292	0.3%1 W · 291 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No	78c	60,497$47,343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,153.67	67	37.3%25 W · 42 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes	0c	45,174$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.65	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes	11c	27,522$3,068 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,067.58	256	0.8%2 W · 254 L	-8.9wins	-0.03per pick	4cpaid	-97.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes	3c	25,618$840 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$839.86	629	1.3%8 W · 621 L	-7.1wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-88.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8600…ff1dbacked Yes	1c	21,370$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.72	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes	12c	19,810$2,280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,280.01	109	33.9%37 W · 72 L	+5.0wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed Yes	33c	18,929$6,179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,178.66	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	9c	18,503$1,628 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,628.09	211	0.9%2 W · 209 L	-12.0wins	-0.06per pick	7cpaid	-85.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x51dc…d9e0backed Yes	28c	16,401$4,660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,659.87	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	26cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe86c…ba88backed Yes	19c	16,075$3,024 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,024.46	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ef…30f5backed Yes	49c	14,452$7,032 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,031.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3498…5088backed Yes	16c	13,928$2,292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,292.16	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes	2c	13,585$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	+61.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b98…b8e1backed Yes	1c	12,806$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.93	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes	1c	12,318$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.42	156	15.4%24 W · 132 L	-8.9wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb425…366bbacked Yes	38c	12,173$4,644 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,643.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb877…a13fbacked Yes	19c	11,728$2,286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,286.04	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes	24c	11,644$2,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,750.06	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	-2.8wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb83a…2a7ebacked Yes	4c	11,162$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x23ad…ea4dbacked Yes	26c	11,036$2,902 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,902.05	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	11c	10,306$1,103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,102.68	72	19.4%14 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x008b…9e3ebacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa085…ac29backed Yes	4c	9,149$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4508…9134backed Yes	23c	9,144$2,135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,134.64	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de1…5decbacked Yes	1c	7,658$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6cc…f848backed Yes	27c	7,472$2,035 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,034.68	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	37cpaid	-61%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe419…5839backed No	73c	7,221$5,305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,915.83	71	39.4%28 W · 43 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e23…5411backed Yes	28c	7,153$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-57%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x410a…e8b8backed Yes	41c	6,563$2,661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,661.07	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-18%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes	18c	6,525$1,184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,183.82	76	11.8%9 W · 67 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes	32c	6,408$2,047 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,047.03	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7426…9e9fbacked Yes	2c	6,352$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5587…5200backed Yes	26c	6,270$1,653 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,652.52	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	+18.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	27c	6,115$1,636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,635.85	407	12.3%50 W · 357 L	-35.7wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb3e8…e81fbacked Yes	19c	5,996$1,165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,164.77	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-2.3wins	-0.14per pick	20cpaid	-74.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	77c	5,577$4,280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,297.2	479	38%182 W · 297 L	-11.3wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No	67c	5,367$3,571 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,795.93	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	+4.9wins	+0.09per pick	39cpaid	+24.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes	28c	5,296$1,505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,504.98	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	38cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x596e…8cc7backed Yes	19c	5,162$1,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,002.97	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…87aebacked Yes	2c	5,030$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes	1c	5,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8083…4a0bbacked Yes	6c	4,972$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaf9…c201backed Yes	17c	4,819$795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$795.14	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.34per pick	32cpaid	+69.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes	1c	4,755$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.37	42	26.2%11 W · 31 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63a6…f308backed Yes	7c	4,707$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.74	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-74.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes	17c	4,550$771 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$771.33	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64d8…2874backed Yes	37c	4,547$1,696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,696.1	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	4,440$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.16	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes	20c	4,392$865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$865.32	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-80.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x449c…ee9cbacked Yes	3c	4,344$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.86	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes	47c	4,269$1,992 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,992.04	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c9b…818fbacked Yes	2c	4,186$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No	75c	4,147$3,092 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,054.91	110	30.9%34 W · 76 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes	2c	4,046$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.42	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-79%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ee…df72backed Yes	29c	3,776$1,079 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,078.71	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No	70c	3,700$2,579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,120.6	85	43.5%37 W · 48 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8c…6810backed Yes	38c	3,691$1,385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,385.18	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d6c…13b3backed Yes	0c	3,667$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe36d…6b21backed Yes	11c	3,544$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x599d…6521backed Yes	6c	3,526$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes	22c	3,512$771 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$770.75	243	15.2%37 W · 206 L	+7.0wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x537b…ef7fbacked Yes	38c	3,438$1,313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,312.73	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed Yes	32c	3,421$1,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,080.01	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes	21c	3,416$708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$708.34	28	46.4%13 W · 15 L	+3.5wins	+0.13per pick	34cpaid	+43.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9bda…186dbacked Yes	10c	3,400$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x388b…1343backed Yes	15c	3,368$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.05	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048a…eb07backed Yes	18c	3,362$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600.7	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36fc…c9f4backed No	61c	3,283$2,011 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,272.06	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85e9…10afbacked Yes	39c	3,258$1,275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,275	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x132b…be94backed Yes	37c	3,148$1,157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,157.34	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc446…d9aabacked Yes	2c	3,110$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1b…a11dbacked No	61c	3,078$1,878 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,199.92	90	41.1%37 W · 53 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes	1c	3,043$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.86	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes	1c	3,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	86	44.2%38 W · 48 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+10%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes	13c	2,914$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.88	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0782…616dbacked No	79c	2,878$2,262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$616.16	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.20per pick	42cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e98…ae0fbacked Yes	14c	2,860$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.4	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ec…0b6fbacked Yes	35c	2,855$996 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$996	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f47…c792backed No	63c	2,800$1,753 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,047.19	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4825…5ec5backed Yes	12c	2,760$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.71	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked No	65c	2,740$1,781 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$958.84	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+3.6wins	+0.20per pick	52cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8528…d446backed Yes	37c	2,727$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2360…659bbacked Yes	1c	2,726$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.64	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x447f…9767backed Yes	31c	2,620$815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$815.33	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-2.5wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe015…c858backed Yes	2c	2,613$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes	16c	2,573$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.72	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	21cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed Yes	30c	2,536$768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$768.07	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69cd…06f3backed Yes	2c	2,534$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes	14c	2,500$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.5	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x513b…9addbacked Yes	15c	2,500$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.59	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f1…a137backed Yes	1c	2,477$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	2,473$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.11	1,363	6.8%93 W · 1,270 L	-20.2wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba6…f835backed Yes	41c	2,458$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x656a…be53backed Yes	45c	2,450$1,093 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,092.59	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes	21c	2,338$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.99	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	32c	2,229$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$719.76	263	12.9%34 W · 229 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes	1c	2,200$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	73	37%27 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x10fa…10e7backed Yes	15c	2,172$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.97	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceb5…7c14backed Yes	35c	2,169$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?this page
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on July 31?No won
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31?No won
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31?No won
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?Yes won
Will Meta have the top AI model on July 31?No won
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event