AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf98cba974ba711e58cdcb6a1572797d56a3b697931e88c709bed0aa2c2a682c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $744,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $339,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $744,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 75,999$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…7e1cbacked Yes | 1c | 48,105$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 44,721$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.67 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 39,443$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.71 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…df72backed Yes | 1c | 32,210$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.85 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…e387backed Yes | 0c | 30,546$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2f…9d1bbacked Yes | 1c | 28,224$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5423…8b45backed Yes | 0c | 22,533$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…9e3ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 17,133$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6c…13b3backed Yes | 0c | 16,094$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 14,010$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…b879backed Yes | 0c | 13,796$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,039$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de1…5decbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 0c | 9,440$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…a4c9backed Yes | 1c | 8,304$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c15…72ffbacked Yes | 0c | 7,365$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0541…5ecfbacked Yes | 1c | 7,316$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf0…6e2abacked Yes | 1c | 7,038$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,652$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.33 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 0c | 6,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e06…a8b7backed Yes | 1c | 5,566$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…2ca7backed Yes | 2c | 5,406$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -80%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3857…6704backed Yes | 0c | 5,320$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…6cbebacked Yes | 3c | 4,985$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…818fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,691$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f65…d10dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,184$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 0c | 4,011$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 0c | 3,826$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…ddecbacked Yes | 1c | 3,810$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4553…f8d6backed Yes | 1c | 3,582$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 1c | 3,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,371$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…2b75backed Yes | 2c | 3,249$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46cb…c3adbacked Yes | 0c | 3,220$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d1…9969backed Yes | 4c | 3,108$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 1c | 3,027$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ee…596dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,817$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,685$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cd…06f3backed Yes | 2c | 2,588$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,508$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0689…7674backed Yes | 1c | 2,447$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,334$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6353…204cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b4…a888backed Yes | 1c | 2,255$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,012$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d8…e57abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,860$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…5af6backed Yes | 1c | 1,810$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf691…a175backed Yes | 1c | 1,612$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 1,589$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853b…eff5backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…4ab0backed Yes | 2c | 1,176$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…3466backed Yes | 1c | 1,048$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f9…44a4backed Yes | 2c | 1,024$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 2c | 1,012$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9483…ed38backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e7…102dbacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ef…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 988.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbf…3bc0backed Yes | 3c | 918.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…0b5cbacked Yes | 2c | 915.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7135…8e64backed Yes | 4c | 894.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b3…108cbacked Yes | 1c | 890.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf614…689abacked Yes | 2c | 889.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa625…71d8backed Yes | 2c | 878$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c25…92bfbacked Yes | 3c | 798.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…22ccbacked Yes | 3c | 739.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9795…1328backed Yes | 3c | 710.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…9d0fbacked Yes | 3c | 689.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 311.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 167.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on July 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on July 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.