AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c01ea0b0a3d91e4fe2c4aec3ef54d21d48ca35486f23eb060d30f4a5b69cbc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,103,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $708,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,103,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 367 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d49…4f7cbacked Yes | 2c | 31,422$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 6c | 26,427$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.13 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f2…d036backed Yes | 3c | 26,262$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa847…e12dbacked Yes | 7c | 25,715$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,835.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 23,121$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.99 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 3c | 22,005$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.22 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0400…d963backed Yes | 4c | 21,434$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 15c | 20,851$3,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,134.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 20,161$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.15 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 20,134$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.14 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…42d6backed Yes | 7c | 19,995$1,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.87 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e5…8b97backed Yes | 7c | 18,175$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 9c | 17,567$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.56 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 17,219$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.97 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 5c | 14,824$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.4 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 6c | 14,803$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.1 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…5e2dbacked Yes | 7c | 13,413$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ef…30f5backed Yes | 11c | 13,122$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 12,772$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.09 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 4c | 11,811$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.7 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c25…92bfbacked Yes | 5c | 10,722$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed Yes | 8c | 10,000$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.68 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…87aebacked Yes | 8c | 9,907$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4237…59edbacked Yes | 4c | 9,641$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 5c | 9,628$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.79 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…738bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,028$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 6c | 7,792$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb330…ff74backed Yes | 5c | 7,791$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes | 4c | 7,100$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.17 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 5c | 6,805$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.63 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x132f…0e6ebacked Yes | 5c | 5,591$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…b763backed Yes | 7c | 5,409$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…a8c1backed Yes | 4c | 5,388$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.06 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 6c | 5,228$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.95 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8600…ff1dbacked Yes | 9c | 5,195$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7d…d5ddbacked Yes | 7c | 5,018$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…9d56backed Yes | 3c | 4,990$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.52 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…aaa6backed Yes | 7c | 4,978$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf5…e387backed Yes | 5c | 4,956$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 4,917$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…7b30backed Yes | 2c | 4,735$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 4c | 4,691$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.56 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ef…2e27backed Yes | 6c | 4,489$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 4,170$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.86 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd301…49cdbacked Yes | 16c | 3,801$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3442…bd4dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,762$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2c…a85ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,730$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 7c | 3,707$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fc…c9f4backed Yes | 8c | 3,660$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 12c | 3,631$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,608$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2f…9d1bbacked Yes | 11c | 3,525$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d9…7c64backed Yes | 5c | 3,408$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.67 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…169dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,319$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de1…5decbacked Yes | 3c | 3,303$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…a3b8backed Yes | 6c | 3,270$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7426…9e9fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,249$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb542…0e1cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,188$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…910fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,162$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…e81fbacked Yes | 6c | 3,111$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.58 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes | 4c | 3,100$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…73fcbacked Yes | 6c | 3,085$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…2874backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0f…b369backed Yes | 2c | 2,987$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 7c | 2,900$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.85 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…80a7backed Yes | 9c | 2,700$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed Yes | 7c | 2,695$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Yes | 6c | 2,655$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…a928backed Yes | 7c | 2,649$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 2,623$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.54 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 3c | 2,576$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1347…bc3dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,572$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,570$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.92 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19a…66bbbacked Yes | 5c | 2,437$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…89f3backed Yes | 1c | 2,393$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdc…27bebacked Yes | 5c | 2,328$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…45cdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,318$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 4c | 2,304$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1107…f55dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,280$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…1b74backed Yes | 9c | 2,232$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ad…edaebacked Yes | 3c | 2,123$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 18c | 1,961$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.08 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 1,904$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…3c2bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,894$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…da30backed Yes | 5c | 1,866$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.06 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9795…1328backed Yes | 7c | 1,866$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc446…d9aabacked Yes | 3c | 1,864$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…8c45backed Yes | 8c | 1,837$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…07acbacked Yes | 11c | 1,809$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…ccf7backed Yes | 3c | 1,771$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,752$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…7611backed Yes | 4c | 1,728$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1194…fae4backed Yes | 6c | 1,727$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 8c | 1,686$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.6 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,683$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 6c | 1,658$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…5a5bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,651$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6c…13b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,637$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4617…8bc9backed Yes | 9c | 1,617$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on July 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on July 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.