TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,103,754
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$708,653

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,103,754 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 367 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7d49…4f7cbacked Yes2c31,422$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.07837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes6c26,427$1,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.134714.9%7 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87f2…d036backed Yes3c26,262$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa847…e12dbacked Yes7c25,715$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.78714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-75.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes4c23,121$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.996291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes3c22,005$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.222920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0400…d963backed Yes4c21,434$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes15c20,851$3,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,134.951225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-62.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes5c20,161$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.157219.4%14 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c20,134$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.142110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbb…42d6backed Yes7c19,995$1,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.871711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick17cpaid+154.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55e5…8b97backed Yes7c18,175$1,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,201.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98e8…ab20backed Yes9c17,567$1,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,527.562821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes5c17,219$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.972560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes5c14,824$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.42740.7%11 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes6c14,803$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.13411.8%4 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb13c…5e2dbacked Yes7c13,413$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-84.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ef…30f5backed Yes11c13,122$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c12,772$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.0915615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes4c11,811$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.76737.3%25 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c25…92bfbacked Yes5c10,722$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.96714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63a6…f308backed Yes8c10,000$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.681414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…87aebacked Yes8c9,907$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4237…59edbacked Yes4c9,641$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes5c9,628$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.797611.8%9 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9682…738bbacked Yes0c8,028$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes6c7,792$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-80.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb330…ff74backed Yes5c7,791$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.43728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-58.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes4c7,100$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.172218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes5c6,805$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.636829.4%20 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x132f…0e6ebacked Yes5c5,591$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.4450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad8a…b763backed Yes7c5,409$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88fa…a8c1backed Yes4c5,388$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.062441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes6c5,228$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.9526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8600…ff1dbacked Yes9c5,195$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a7d…d5ddbacked Yes7c5,018$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-63.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe158…9d56backed Yes3c4,990$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.52137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-88.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d0e…aaa6backed Yes7c4,978$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdf5…e387backed Yes5c4,956$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.99812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-76.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c4,917$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.99120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9014…7b30backed Yes2c4,735$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes4c4,691$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.563429.4%10 W · 24 L-7.2wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-53.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xb5ef…2e27backed Yes6c4,489$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.6250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes3c4,170$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.864226.2%11 W · 31 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes3c4,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1084216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd301…49cdbacked Yes16c3,801$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.77825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-58.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3442…bd4dbacked Yes3c3,762$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b2c…a85ebacked Yes3c3,730$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x048a…eb07backed Yes7c3,707$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2494117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36fc…c9f4backed Yes8c3,660$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed Yes12c3,631$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4481711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-82.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes1c3,608$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.859915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed2f…9d1bbacked Yes11c3,525$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69d9…7c64backed Yes5c3,408$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.671513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-79.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7432…169dbacked Yes4c3,319$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de1…5decbacked Yes3c3,303$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b5e…a3b8backed Yes6c3,270$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7426…9e9fbacked Yes5c3,249$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb542…0e1cbacked Yes4c3,188$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fac…910fbacked Yes8c3,162$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3e8…e81fbacked Yes6c3,111$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.58175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-74.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes4c3,100$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-72.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdfa…73fcbacked Yes6c3,085$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.021030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64d8…2874backed Yes8c3,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a0f…b369backed Yes2c2,987$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes7c2,900$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.856716.4%11 W · 56 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cf1…80a7backed Yes9c2,700$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ac…84f3backed Yes7c2,695$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-75%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8af9…c3e8backed Yes6c2,655$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1574812.5%6 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc4…a928backed Yes7c2,649$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c2,623$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.5440712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed Yes3c2,576$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3220%0 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1347…bc3dbacked Yes3c2,572$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes6c2,570$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.9221713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc19a…66bbbacked Yes5c2,437$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.56728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89f1…89f3backed Yes1c2,393$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cdc…27bebacked Yes5c2,328$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.73633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-51.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd397…45cdbacked Yes3c2,318$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes4c2,304$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.086428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1107…f55dbacked Yes7c2,280$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2a2…1b74backed Yes9c2,232$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ad…edaebacked Yes3c2,123$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes18c1,961$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.081816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes5c1,904$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3530127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa89b…3c2bbacked Yes6c1,894$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.791030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-57.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ef…da30backed Yes5c1,866$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.06119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-88.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9795…1328backed Yes7c1,866$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.79922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-66.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc446…d9aabacked Yes3c1,864$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0764…8c45backed Yes8c1,837$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.84825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-58.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e55…07acbacked Yes11c1,809$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf82…ccf7backed Yes3c1,771$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes7c1,752$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.8229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda66…7611backed Yes4c1,728$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1194…fae4backed Yes6c1,727$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes8c1,686$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.62326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes4c1,683$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x599d…6521backed Yes6c1,658$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-58.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadc5…5a5bbacked Yes7c1,651$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d6c…13b3backed Yes1c1,637$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-37.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4617…8bc9backed Yes9c1,617$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.04560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.