TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9795…1328

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Space at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$57.76
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$411Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+100.8%+$414.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$549Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+61.5%+$337.76
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.24
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+68.3%+$159.53
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+110.5%+$49.73
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.55
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$752Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+60.8%+$457.11
Israel military action on Yemen before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$120.98
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+37.4%+$57.79
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+59.7%+$30.46
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$19.79
Israel military action against Yemen before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+92.3%+$27.31
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$34.95
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$99.54
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$34.87
Lee Jae-myung arrested before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+41.7%+$4.58
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+146.2%+$130.03
Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+59.2%+$37.9
Will the Progressive Reform Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$108
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$350.22
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$90.87
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+45.2%+$100.67
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Yoon reinstated as President before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+100%+$10.46
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+106.8%+$78.29
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will the next reconciliation bill be passed between July 7 and July 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.22
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Israel before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+48.6%+$40.52
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Canada before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+78.9%+$185.34
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+86.9%+$166.52
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with India before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+91.5%+$175.54
US military action against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$17.49
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+29%+$58.08
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$335Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$334.91
Will TikTok be banned again before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+46.4%+$74.16
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST+58.7%+$88.68
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 31, 2025, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-66.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$123.32
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.79
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$198.86
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$50.65
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.99
Will Sam Altman take equity in OpenAI in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+37.6%+$18.78
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2024, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dogecoin reach $0.60 before December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+45.6%+$9.58
Will Dogecoin reach $0.55 before December?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+62.4%+$44.27
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$10.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$119.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$58.94
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.