TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,633,443
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,864,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,633,443 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 347 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3ec4…bf73backed No0c201,215$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96950%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed No11c95,190$10,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,299.9910122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes75c59,422$44,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,942.4811853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23c0…564cbacked No39c51,072$19,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,894.082722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid+34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No0c50,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No0c44,791$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.56410.9%7 W · 57 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5690…b400backed Yes64c31,217$19,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,262.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Yes64c27,871$17,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,948.692060%12 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked No14c25,616$3,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,549.333834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes68c23,108$15,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,279.3311013.6%15 W · 95 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes65c20,000$13,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,937.14045%18 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No12c19,119$2,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,264.921330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No5c18,439$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.457225%18 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No35c16,618$5,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8706038.3%23 W · 37 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes77c13,910$10,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,259.414055%22 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8644…3904backed No12c11,855$1,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443.8156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-82.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b9…fa51backed Yes66c11,450$7,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,885616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-74.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No41c10,848$4,407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,406.7716535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb49…b5b3backed Yes63c10,479$6,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,852.733259.4%19 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+34.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes53c10,478$5,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,909.8810233.3%34 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed No7c9,138$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.4319623%45 W · 151 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes59c8,443$4,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,444.255536.4%20 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f79…1608backed Yes64c8,273$5,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,958.55450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9961…adcbbacked No3c8,153$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.021442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e5f…8a51backed Yes65c7,601$4,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,651.211258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No39c7,253$2,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,803.622737%10 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes68c6,653$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.833455.9%19 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed No40c6,266$2,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,512.111717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-45.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked No6c5,631$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.175521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed No36c5,507$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.551136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6091…972bbacked Yes62c5,300$3,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0141957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed No23c5,149$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.94219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes66c4,453$2,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,515.438529.4%25 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c4,133$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.926883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes67c3,587$2,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.843250%16 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed No11c3,403$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.537038.6%27 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No59c3,304$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,944.4415230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No39c3,282$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.8431443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No35c3,243$1,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,137.415317%9 W · 44 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc383…83f9backed Yes64c3,226$2,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.011040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a67…8814backed Yes64c3,123$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes57c3,000$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3007650%38 W · 38 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No11c3,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33014330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a1…4209backed No0c2,653$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a46…5b84backed Yes62c2,642$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.86666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes77c2,568$1,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.051947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+72.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed No2c2,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508123.5%19 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No8c2,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005149%25 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes64c2,473$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.882040%8 W · 12 L-4.8wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-44.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4829…2e7cbacked No37c2,433$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.34520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-69.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked No21c2,432$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.392330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-40.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5010…75dfbacked Yes80c2,400$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.53542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No46c2,261$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.3312129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f866backed No7c2,133$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.327828.2%22 W · 56 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7404047.5%19 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe9…8308backed Yes57c2,000$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.56040%24 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No26c2,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.995425.9%14 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e71…a236backed Yes60c1,885$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$751.27560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed Yes63c1,860$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.04366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x668d…97d2backed No35c1,750$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.93339.4%13 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Yes61c1,707$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.522458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+75%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No35c1,669$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.412729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-37.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38e0…ccb5backed Yes69c1,667$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.391118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-61.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes53c1,647$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.32846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes68c1,609$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.438555.3%47 W · 38 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Yes63c1,503$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.765435.2%19 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5858…7b42backed Yes62c1,500$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.161450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf586…f614backed No37c1,500$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0407…e5c7backed Yes66c1,455$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.55560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+27.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed No36c1,450$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.611546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b3…6ed8backed Yes63c1,401$885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.853666.7%24 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31bd…2ec3backed No21c1,356$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed Yes66c1,295$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.31258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+122.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed Yes42c1,250$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.52025%5 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff56…ca81backed Yes41c1,220$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.511758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes63c1,100$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.3648224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ac…94edbacked Yes66c1,005$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.55812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-81.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c4…8441backed Yes64c1,000$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.12850%4 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf85f…9800backed Yes63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3705046%23 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x496b…1c57backed Yes57c1,000$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee8d…9b9bbacked No35c950$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes62c936.65$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.9514033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ff…8047backed No5c932.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-62.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x626b…3189backed Yes63c913.92$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.15862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6df…baa2backed Yes66c909.09$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.094942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed No35c857.14$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006322.2%14 W · 49 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df1…ea12backed No38c798.55$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+39.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37d0…b0c5backed No39c771.18$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11f6…cce7backed Yes66c700$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2381040%4 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-44.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No15c699.99$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.220325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285b…114dbacked Yes69c690.35$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.66837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes73c682.05$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.051241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+144.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc358…1015backed Yes62c636.29$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.293732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-33.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed Yes64c633.2$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.52653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes43c604.11$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.3418530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes63c600$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2224526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53cf…7d67backed Yes68c600$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.54037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked No35c571$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.857423%17 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No4c570.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.833537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes63c556.9$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.091338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-35.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.