World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08121291cd61eaea56d62dda92b80a1a5aa80d99fdf210343713902561a8939b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,633,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,864,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,633,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 347 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ec4…bf73backed No | 0c | 201,215$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed No | 11c | 95,190$10,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,299.99 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 75c | 59,422$44,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,942.48 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked No | 39c | 51,072$19,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,894.08 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 0c | 50,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 0c | 44,791$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5690…b400backed Yes | 64c | 31,217$19,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,262.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Yes | 64c | 27,871$17,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,948.69 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 14c | 25,616$3,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,549.33 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 68c | 23,108$15,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,279.33 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes | 65c | 20,000$13,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,937.1 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked No | 12c | 19,119$2,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,264.92 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 5c | 18,439$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.45 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 35c | 16,618$5,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,870 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 77c | 13,910$10,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,259.41 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8644…3904backed No | 12c | 11,855$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.8 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…fa51backed Yes | 66c | 11,450$7,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,885 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 41c | 10,848$4,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,406.77 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…b5b3backed Yes | 63c | 10,479$6,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,852.73 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 53c | 10,478$5,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,909.88 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 7c | 9,138$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.43 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 59c | 8,443$4,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,444.25 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…1608backed Yes | 64c | 8,273$5,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,958.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked No | 3c | 8,153$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.02 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5f…8a51backed Yes | 65c | 7,601$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,651.21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 39c | 7,253$2,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,803.62 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 68c | 6,653$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,152.83 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 40c | 6,266$2,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,512.11 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 6c | 5,631$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.17 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 36c | 5,507$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,987.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…972bbacked Yes | 62c | 5,300$3,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…0cd2backed No | 23c | 5,149$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.94 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 66c | 4,453$2,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,515.43 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 4,133$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.92 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 67c | 3,587$2,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.84 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 11c | 3,403$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.53 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 59c | 3,304$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,944.44 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 39c | 3,282$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.84 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 35c | 3,243$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.41 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…83f9backed Yes | 64c | 3,226$2,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…8814backed Yes | 64c | 3,123$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 57c | 3,000$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…4209backed No | 0c | 2,653$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…5b84backed Yes | 62c | 2,642$1,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 77c | 2,568$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 8c | 2,500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 64c | 2,473$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.88 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…2e7cbacked No | 37c | 2,433$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked No | 21c | 2,432$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.39 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5010…75dfbacked Yes | 80c | 2,400$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 46c | 2,261$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.33 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed No | 7c | 2,133$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.32 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 57c | 2,000$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.5 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…a236backed Yes | 60c | 1,885$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e8…c443backed Yes | 63c | 1,860$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 35c | 1,750$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.9 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yes | 61c | 1,707$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.52 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +75%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 35c | 1,669$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.41 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e0…ccb5backed Yes | 69c | 1,667$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 53c | 1,647$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.3 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 68c | 1,609$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.43 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 63c | 1,503$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.76 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…7b42backed Yes | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed No | 37c | 1,500$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0407…e5c7backed Yes | 66c | 1,455$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 36c | 1,450$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.61 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…6ed8backed Yes | 63c | 1,401$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.85 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31bd…2ec3backed No | 21c | 1,356$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed Yes | 66c | 1,295$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Yes | 42c | 1,250$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.5 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed Yes | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.51 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 63c | 1,100$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.36 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ac…94edbacked Yes | 66c | 1,005$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…8441backed Yes | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…9800backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496b…1c57backed Yes | 57c | 1,000$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8d…9b9bbacked No | 35c | 950$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 62c | 936.65$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.95 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ff…8047backed No | 5c | 932.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x626b…3189backed Yes | 63c | 913.92$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 66c | 909.09$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.09 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed No | 35c | 857.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…ea12backed No | 38c | 798.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37d0…b0c5backed No | 39c | 771.18$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f6…cce7backed Yes | 66c | 700$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 15c | 699.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…114dbacked Yes | 69c | 690.35$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 73c | 682.05$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +144.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc358…1015backed Yes | 62c | 636.29$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.29 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 64c | 633.2$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 43c | 604.11$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.34 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 63c | 600$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed Yes | 68c | 600$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 35c | 571$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.85 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 4c | 570.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes | 63c | 556.9$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?this page
- Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor minority?No won
- Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National majority?No won
- Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National minority?No won
- Will the next Government of Australia be led by another formation?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.