World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National minority?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5891ac6848d00f18ea2252020cf954c1a241fedca2ddcf301b0bc88907c43c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $442,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $307,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $442,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 85,000$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 7c | 50,488$3,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,283.33 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 1c | 36,293$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.24 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Yes | 4c | 14,697$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.17 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 4c | 11,032$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.2 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…4209backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes | 4c | 8,180$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 5c | 8,165$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.14 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 4c | 6,790$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 5c | 6,666$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.64 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb592…1cabbacked Yes | 4c | 6,560$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.93 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,750$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 4c | 4,655$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.57 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 3c | 4,063$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.83 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 4c | 3,550$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 5c | 3,170$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.04 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6b…7be7backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,869$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 2,814$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20df…7a40backed Yes | 4c | 2,742$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 4c | 2,605$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed Yes | 7c | 2,358$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a7…49b7backed Yes | 5c | 2,132$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 5c | 1,633$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4b…e879backed Yes | 5c | 1,563$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,410$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 1,313$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 1,307$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176b…1fe9backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…448dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,194$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…f5b7backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +622.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 987.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 4c | 907.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce1…285cbacked Yes | 5c | 874.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 5c | 640$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab68…1bb1backed Yes | 3c | 600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 7c | 515$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c5…1829backed Yes | 8c | 450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…744dbacked Yes | 8c | 440$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 11cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 5c | 427.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 390.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e16…7d17backed Yes | 3c | 366.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 314.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 7c | 270$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3216backed Yes | 4c | 263.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 8c | 141.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…5295backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National minority?this page
- Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?Yes won
- Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor minority?No won
- Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National majority?No won
- Will the next Government of Australia be led by another formation?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.