World Politics · resolved market
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor minority?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x969558acd04fc16d3eb0ab685ad8b5878269651ac0b528280b5ae291b4bd5052
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $683,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $529,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $683,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 0c | 131,320$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.05 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb3…17cdbacked No | 63c | 60,056$37,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,220.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…bd96backed Yes | 37c | 60,056$22,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,220.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 26c | 46,335$12,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,189.74 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…74cebacked Yes | 6c | 26,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 50cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc7…278bbacked Yes | 12c | 14,777$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 32c | 13,536$4,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,344.43 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 33c | 12,373$4,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,061.45 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 3c | 11,866$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.66 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed No | 68c | 11,110$7,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,555.2 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 32c | 9,744$3,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,085.58 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,836$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.02 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…4209backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 33c | 4,800$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.91 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 35c | 4,711$1,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,648.47 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 29c | 4,431$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,306.28 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 6c | 4,333$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 32c | 4,183$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.01 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed Yes | 38c | 4,149$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.05 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d2…f38bbacked No | 70c | 4,025$2,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 31c | 3,697$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.52 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 32c | 3,630$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.6 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…6aaebacked Yes | 34c | 3,405$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed Yes | 19c | 3,400$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 32c | 3,382$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.47 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 3,260$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes | 17c | 3,240$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…fa51backed Yes | 30c | 3,050$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 24c | 2,951$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.44 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6c76…50fdbacked Yes | 34c | 2,899$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 47c | 2,743$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.89 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 69c | 2,695$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 32c | 2,572$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.1 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 32c | 2,538$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$812.16 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 6c | 2,523$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.32 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 33c | 2,500$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.43 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…7b42backed Yes | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…7db0backed Yes | 1c | 1,912$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 67c | 1,883$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.73 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 1,750$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 31c | 1,735$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 38c | 1,674$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.76 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 32c | 1,467$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.63 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 42c | 1,440$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.87 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…c12dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,366$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.95 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 31c | 1,174$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…ba50backed Yes | 34c | 1,167$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.94 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20e…7d58backed Yes | 31c | 1,097$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.07 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 33c | 1,061$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 20c | 1,043$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.82 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6b…7be7backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 35c | 975.56$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.84 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…a236backed Yes | 53c | 945.37$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…8fcebacked Yes | 34c | 909.58$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 30c | 908.74$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.09 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed No | 66c | 884.37$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.68 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…8de3backed Yes | 8c | 850$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…b693backed No | 69c | 835.84$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 33c | 831.33$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.57 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 33c | 762$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.66 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9968…a104backed Yes | 10c | 680$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 62c | 549.99$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.17 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…0055backed Yes | 41c | 539$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.14 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 29c | 519.2$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.02 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9b…6bf0backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 32c | 489.98$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.69 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…114dbacked Yes | 32c | 485.54$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 4c | 472.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 465.14$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.52 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ac…94edbacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 53c | 445.3$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.29 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x673b…c0fdbacked Yes | 11c | 417.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 30c | 400$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…f6cfbacked Yes | 11c | 380$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 32c | 349.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 33c | 323.75$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20df…7a40backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e17…f00ebacked Yes | 6c | 320$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…84ddbacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe908…c1fdbacked Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 33c | 300$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x359f…51b0backed Yes | 48c | 284.23$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd5…f0a7backed Yes | 32c | 282.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 33c | 277.18$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Yes | 45c | 270.26$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.29 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…2088backed Yes | 32c | 240.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 33c | 221$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 33c | 203$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…42debacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…4f13backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor minority?this page
- Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority?Yes won
- Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National majority?No won
- Will the next Government of Australia be a Liberal–National minority?No won
- Will the next Government of Australia be led by another formation?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.