TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor minority?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$683,791
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$529,673

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $683,791 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes0c131,320$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.0511013.6%15 W · 95 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8eb3…17cdbacked No63c60,056$37,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,220.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee4…bd96backed Yes37c60,056$22,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,220.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes26c46,335$12,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,189.7410122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x70b9…74cebacked Yes6c26,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,680785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick50cpaid+76.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5cc7…278bbacked Yes12c14,777$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes32c13,536$4,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,344.4325337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes33c12,373$4,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,061.452343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes3c11,866$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.664513.3%6 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-65.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed No68c11,110$7,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,555.22060%12 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes32c9,744$3,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,085.5810233.3%34 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes2c7,836$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.027225%18 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a1…4209backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes33c4,800$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,576.9111428.9%33 W · 81 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+70.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes35c4,711$1,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,648.4716535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Yes29c4,431$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,306.283834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f29…dd03backed Yes6c4,333$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506434.4%22 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes32c4,183$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.017357.5%42 W · 31 L+10.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+53.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xff56…ca81backed Yes38c4,149$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.051758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d2…f38bbacked No70c4,025$2,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.46757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+42%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes31c3,697$1,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.529750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes32c3,630$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.66038.3%23 W · 37 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-20%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde88…6aaebacked Yes34c3,405$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e02…b1c5backed Yes19c3,400$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes32c3,382$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.475536.4%20 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c3,260$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.936883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes17c3,240$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b9…fa51backed Yes30c3,050$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-74.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes24c2,951$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.4415230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6c76…50fdbacked Yes34c2,899$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+70.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed Yes47c2,743$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.8914240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed No69c2,695$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.491136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes32c2,572$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.112129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed Yes32c2,538$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.1620538%78 W · 127 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes6c2,523$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.327038.6%27 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes33c2,500$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.435149%25 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5858…7b42backed Yes47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9401450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x937b…7db0backed Yes1c1,912$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No67c1,883$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.732653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes30c1,750$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52532354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes31c1,735$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5382740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes38c1,674$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.7614033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9961…adcbbacked Yes6c1,500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes15c1,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2258529.4%25 W · 60 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes32c1,467$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.6312920.9%27 W · 102 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes42c1,440$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.872846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac43…4925backed Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90e0…c12dbacked Yes30c1,366$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.955232.7%17 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-36.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes31c1,174$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3643537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-32.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x933b…ba50backed Yes34c1,167$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.941717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd20e…7d58backed Yes31c1,097$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.0790%0 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4124…5827backed Yes33c1,061$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes20c1,043$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.824327.9%12 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3802650%13 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6b…7be7backed Yes50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes35c975.56$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.846523.1%15 W · 50 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e71…a236backed Yes53c945.37$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6df…baa2backed Yes32c937.5$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaaf2…8fcebacked Yes34c909.58$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes30c908.74$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.095317%9 W · 44 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-71%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe306…d100backed No66c884.37$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.682839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a4f…8de3backed Yes8c850$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc869…b693backed No69c835.84$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.89450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes33c831.33$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.5731443.9%138 W · 176 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes33c762$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.668328.9%24 W · 59 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9968…a104backed Yes10c680$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed No62c549.99$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.175530.9%17 W · 38 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-46.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x87ed…0055backed Yes41c539$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.144330.2%13 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes29c519.2$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.0248224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108123.5%19 W · 62 L+6.3wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e9b…6bf0backed Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes32c489.98$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.699423.4%22 W · 72 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x285b…114dbacked Yes32c485.54$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.79837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes4c472.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6311435.1%40 W · 74 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c465.14$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.521,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ac…94edbacked Yes11c454.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-81.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed No53c445.3$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.292548%12 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x673b…c0fdbacked Yes11c417.55$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes30c400$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11814632.2%47 W · 99 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3868…f6cfbacked Yes11c380$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.95520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb084…92dcbacked Yes32c349.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1124025%10 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes33c323.75$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.533525.7%9 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20df…7a40backed Yes31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-73%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e17…f00ebacked Yes6c320$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x193a…84ddbacked Yes33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe908…c1fdbacked Yes32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes33c300$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9820325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes6c300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.516029.4%47 W · 113 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x359f…51b0backed Yes48c284.23$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5bd5…f0a7backed Yes32c282.95$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.54425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-65.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes33c277.18$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.472114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed Yes45c270.26$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.292025%5 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x71bc…2088backed Yes32c240.63$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick54cpaid-59.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes33c221$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.455932.2%19 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No52c220$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.67047.1%33 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+46.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes33c203$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.196410.9%7 W · 57 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No79c200$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.331,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5211454.4%62 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ab0…42debacked Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641520%3 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe23b…4f13backed Yes50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.