TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$179,379
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$180,008

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,379 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x74db…4ca5backed Yes26c11,414$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0101010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-78.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52ad…337dbacked No74c7,264$5,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,859.3825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb38…ce37backed Yes31c6,623$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,046.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-51.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes2c6,576$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.385817.2%10 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c4,281$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.852931%9 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c4,215$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.43989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked Yes35c3,340$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.93737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No71c3,333$2,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.577354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb4b…0e32backed Yes0c2,858$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e38…1b55backed No76c2,845$2,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.83475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No73c2,143$1,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.889347.3%44 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed No74c1,979$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.481844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x372a…7201backed No68c1,975$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.95825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-64.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a40…d801backed Yes26c1,938$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-53.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No67c1,820$1,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.1317850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa502…ce8dbacked Yes1c1,667$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes25c1,633$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.4916854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed No71c1,400$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.993444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No77c1,367$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.6118746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8ac3…9143backed Yes1c1,365$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No74c1,213$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.4710452.9%55 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39a1…af66backed Yes30c1,200$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1be3…74f2backed No75c1,168$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.93333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No72c1,140$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3155265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes23c1,079$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.445349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked Yes27c1,056$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2853026.7%8 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,007$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.141,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes26c1,006$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.7732626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Yes30c1,000$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.73520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c87…9bd4backed No63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3704353.5%23 W · 20 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd89b…7945backed Yes1c975.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.734231%13 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x423b…cb44backed Yes1c950.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121225%3 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick33cpaid+11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed No62c806.45$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.452250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked No73c801.8$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.53638.9%14 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+20.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7253…89edbacked No76c800$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1922634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8add…fc2abacked Yes24c800$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No69c799.43$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.8399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No74c781.95$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.5937740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked No69c760.02$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.945935.6%21 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c749.56$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.144111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No73c744$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.886838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed Yes29c743.42$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.792536%9 W · 16 L-5.2wins-0.21per pick57cpaid-46.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes25c661.54$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.6218745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98a2…033fbacked Yes25c611.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+31.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d1…f176backed No63c600$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.242100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+187.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf501…8852backed Yes34c600$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-68.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc212…a125backed Yes28c599.96$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.992552%13 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc096…e468backed Yes4c578.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No68c554.99$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.610950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes34c546.47$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.85326.4%14 W · 39 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x22c6…cf2abacked Yes31c540$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.61637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed Yes21c519.88$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-45.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No76c501.83$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.447250%36 W · 36 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked No76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1204637%17 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130333%1 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick18cpaid-40.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x241f…3143backed Yes27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6b1…aaadbacked Yes29c499.99$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1451127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-63.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c465.81$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.311,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes6c461.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0419328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed Yes23c443.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.075726.3%15 W · 42 L+5.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+34.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c16…e536backed Yes24c413.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No72c411.43$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.7416544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.61118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-58.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8338…8be1backed No75c399.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf292…ee2dbacked Yes25c398.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c396.2$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4156733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa2f0…9941backed Yes25c393.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+72%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed No67c390$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.23253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No67c373.13$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.1315243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes18c370$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.912643.7%55 W · 71 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f11…b63fbacked No66c358.56$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.821369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3c0…c87cbacked Yes29c350.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No68c340.86$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.325442.6%23 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e45…a2c4backed No77c338.67$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.281266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed Yes22c336.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.231631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked No72c334.79$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.383938.5%15 W · 24 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+102.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes30c332.94$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.51258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d03…4efabacked No77c332.74$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed No72c319$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.322263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes34c304$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.366137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x288e…9ca7backed No64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782025%5 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c90…f36cbacked No68c295.13$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.13955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid-8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9df5…d25dbacked No70c293.9$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick71cpaid-52.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked No69c293.61$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.787943%34 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b21…ec40backed Yes33c284.98$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0460%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa290…872fbacked No71c281.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e84…7040backed Yes7c279.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb084…92dcbacked Yes24c269.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.81833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…5c10backed No75c266.8$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b16…9960backed No76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.16450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.162250%11 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+68.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9795…1328backed No77c258.08$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.081172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd36e…f9adbacked Yes31c257.29$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.761822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-61.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe48d…44fabacked Yes32c253.96$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8060%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No76c250$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6016144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes33c241.71$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5739522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed No76c238.68$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.282065%13 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4825…5ec5backed No77c222.86$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.21464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+76.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No74c222$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7222347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.