TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf6b1…aaad

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
111
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Weather, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 52 out of 100; worst NBA at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT2321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.9wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-57.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.91
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Pelicans vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+42.9%+$8.57
Thunder vs. Pacersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$337.01
Clippers vs. Jazzbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST+49.3%+$33
Heat vs. Netsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$24.36
Bucks vs. Trail Blazersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Pacers vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$28.5
Celtics vs. Lakersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Mavericks vs. Hornetsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Nets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2025, EST-100%-$21.75
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$93
Heat vs. Clippersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Heat vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$44
Heat vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2025, EST+212.5%+$204
Hawks vs. Clippersbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Grizzlies vs. Kingsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Trail Blazers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+72.4%+$126
76ers vs. Warriorsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$130
76ers vs. Kingsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$96
Bulls vs. Wizardsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$69
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2024, EST+100%+$250
All 23 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.94
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$870Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$1,689.6
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,460Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+37%+$539.99
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$568Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$567.91
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$825Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$825.13
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.3
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$700
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$157.89
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$4,811Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+98.7%+$4,748.67
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$4,989Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+60.3%+$3,010.85
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$430
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,318Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+29.3%+$386.14
Will the Liberal Party win the second most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$118
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$3,974Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+25.8%+$1,026.03
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,599Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,599.49
Yoon arrested by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$18
All 16 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-63.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+25%+$18.4
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
50% tariff goes into effect on EU by June 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$145
Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+31.6%+$48
Trump cryptocurrency executive order on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$42
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,004Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$1,004.14
Will Trump declare a national emergency in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+40.8%+$29
Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$71
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$42
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick72cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.92
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+32.1%+$72.9
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$214Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+40.1%+$85.8
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$62.5
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+61.3%+$306.45
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$125
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$790Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$790
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+33.3%+$25
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST+85.2%+$46
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2025, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2025, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa Internationallast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$34.86
Will Barcelona win on 2025-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$215.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Prochazka vs. Hillbacked Hill · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$52
Holland vs. de Ridderbacked de Ridder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+96.1%+$48.96
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5)backed Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolinabacked Elina Svitolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+106.1%+$31.84
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$384
Will Elon tweet 700-724 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$18
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will $TRUMP hit $10B FDV by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+36%+$33.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+25%+$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$215
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok sale announced before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$480.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Midtjylland vs. Brøndby IF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$212.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.