Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0b9fc21c0d1a0d1db4613b7afdab44348c48866601177fe50d26bc25e9e234c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $320,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $249,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $320,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 8c | 13,459$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.24 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -93.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4151…7ae9backed Yes | 6c | 12,284$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes | 38c | 10,661$4,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,091.19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…8956backed Yes | 6c | 7,802$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 31c | 7,023$2,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,187.86 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 40c | 6,880$2,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,738.72 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 4c | 5,908$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 5,561$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.94 | 83 | 3.6%3 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 76c | 4,016$3,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.7 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 36c | 3,817$1,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.3 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 32c | 3,656$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed No | 57c | 3,400$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.99 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 16c | 2,874$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 28c | 2,856$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 2,214$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.59 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 26c | 2,200$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.4 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 21c | 2,131$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.82 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…be05backed Yes | 9c | 2,010$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.24 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked Yes | 35c | 1,945$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,912$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…b0d2backed Yes | 39c | 1,898$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 3c | 1,769$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 36c | 1,734$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.52 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked No | 65c | 1,725$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…45d7backed Yes | 4c | 1,715$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 3c | 1,668$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 5c | 1,616$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed Yes | 30c | 1,562$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 1,560$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.18 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 25c | 1,524$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.38 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 14c | 1,487$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…5e51backed Yes | 24c | 1,400$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.51 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 11c | 1,313$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.64 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 58c | 1,169$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.74 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 22c | 1,147$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Yes | 21c | 1,105$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 10c | 1,100$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 17c | 1,024$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…494dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 31c | 921.99$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.42 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5af9…d09dbacked Yes | 37c | 895.62$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.61 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 3c | 862$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 37c | 848.4$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.8 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…ae3abacked Yes | 9c | 800$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d6…4cb4backed Yes | 6c | 787.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 36c | 785$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 18c | 750$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9d…0dcabacked Yes | 56c | 700.2$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 20c | 680$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.83 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598d…3244backed Yes | 3c | 630$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2f3ebacked Yes | 6c | 578.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b1…aaadbacked Yes | 49c | 550$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 484.91$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 4c | 448.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aab9backed Yes | 24c | 416.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked Yes | 21c | 401.23$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 329.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd2…1098backed Yes | 4c | 276.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 36c | 269.1$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…b972backed Yes | 12c | 262.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed Yes | 46c | 245.88$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 18c | 224.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…4a1abacked Yes | 18c | 223.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…1deebacked Yes | 68c | 200$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked Yes | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 64c | 196.03$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 51c | 166.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +258.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…f499backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 136.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 21c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 22c | 128$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 58c | 126.14$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…9e01backed Yes | 25c | 110.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 75c | 110$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 101.21$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 43c | 101.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 68c | 92.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49a0…eeacbacked Yes | 44c | 91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…ff50backed Yes | 31c | 87.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f53…e2b5backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…25cbbacked No | 62c | 79.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…c6d9backed Yes | 40c | 79.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x266e…73c6backed Yes | 42c | 78.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 24c | 71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb440…6806backed No | 62c | 67.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f30…c8dbbacked Yes | 60c | 66.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…ae21backed No | 72c | 63.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5891…2c7cbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7b…1873backed Yes | 55c | 53.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc3…fa8ebacked Yes | 40c | 53.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 60c | 49.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…9ee9backed Yes | 38c | 43.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb6…d789backed Yes | 38c | 42.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc6…0305backed Yes | 38c | 41.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in March 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.32-1.36ºC in March 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in March 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.41ºC in March 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.