Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.41ºC in March 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x189d47cc689f765e1f935496ff970884f50f5c6c6d4923a59730d4fc640f1807
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $336,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $336,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 0c | 39,637$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 0c | 25,322$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d6…4cb4backed Yes | 0c | 17,650$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…4a1abacked Yes | 0c | 10,520$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f30…c8dbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,313$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 0c | 8,304$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 0c | 6,896$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes | 10c | 6,515$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 5,057$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 2c | 4,556$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf65…45d7backed Yes | 0c | 4,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…b0d2backed Yes | 11c | 3,231$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…ce31backed Yes | 4c | 2,488$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9106…a73cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,986$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,860$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 1,626$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.85 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed Yes | 5c | 1,535$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 3c | 1,149$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 5c | 718.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 2c | 600.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes | 2c | 600.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 519$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed13…494dbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af9…d09dbacked Yes | 9c | 437$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 3c | 418.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 9c | 220$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 12c | 128$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c0…703fbacked Yes | 12c | 100.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.41ºC in March 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in March 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.32-1.36ºC in March 2025?Yes won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in March 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.