Weather · resolved market
Will global temperature increase by between 1.32-1.36ºC in March 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95aebeeaa27416d732a3b3884299a0f49e0ea5e303aea494b031ab8b5ffc5650
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1186…051bbacked Yes | 70c | 12,399$8,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,681.5 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes | 72c | 5,588$4,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.86 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 68c | 5,016$3,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.37 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked Yes | 51c | 4,230$2,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,079.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Yes | 74c | 3,295$2,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 68c | 2,668$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 54c | 2,537$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.65 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 68c | 2,202$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.44 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 55c | 2,201$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.73 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 52c | 2,008$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 72c | 1,961$1,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.57 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 41c | 1,950$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 70c | 1,487$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.24 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 42c | 1,397$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.73 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…7562backed No | 49c | 1,121$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.95 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…92c5backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 16c | 908.97$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.01 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b78…a88abacked Yes | 76c | 890.66$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked Yes | 31c | 869$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…ae3abacked Yes | 76c | 805$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.85 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 79c | 700$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.7 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…aab9backed Yes | 42c | 667.38$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…fd91backed No | 50c | 666.56$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 73c | 650$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 592.52$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bf…b84fbacked Yes | 74c | 584$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 43c | 577.76$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.17 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed Yes | 68c | 562.42$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.42 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f53…e2b5backed Yes | 38c | 541.89$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.27 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b1…aaadbacked Yes | 59c | 528.34$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9d…0dcabacked Yes | 53c | 502.02$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 43c | 500$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 52c | 462$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 76c | 424.27$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 78c | 401.78$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.62 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…efd1backed No | 32c | 320$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked Yes | 28c | 302.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.39 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 30c | 300$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 48c | 300$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 76c | 295$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 4c | 281.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfce6…b0d2backed Yes | 33c | 273.1$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…7f5abacked No | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0b…18f1backed Yes | 68c | 245$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af9…d09dbacked Yes | 31c | 237.19$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 37c | 232.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed Yes | 74c | 220$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 44c | 206.95$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 31c | 200.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0713…a21bbacked Yes | 68c | 185$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 38c | 181.12$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…34e3backed No | 32c | 180$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed No | 33c | 174.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 173.05$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 25c | 167.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e79…c9d4backed Yes | 71c | 162.25$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x406c…bc37backed Yes | 76c | 152.47$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +335.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…f499backed No | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +197.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 25c | 149.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.85 | 74 | 33.8%25 W · 49 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…cbc2backed Yes | 69c | 145.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 35c | 124.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Yes | 53c | 113$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 18c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe049…1999backed Yes | 65c | 101.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 78c | 101$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 49c | 98.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…ff50backed Yes | 54c | 78.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…7038backed Yes | 61c | 77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 75.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 48c | 74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe35a…2d33backed Yes | 26c | 69.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5891…2c7cbacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d68…caf0backed Yes | 57c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ce…3926backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 36c | 46.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed No | 41c | 43.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 70c | 36.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…f57dbacked No | 37c | 36.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e23…e3cabacked Yes | 79c | 31.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…d8b9backed Yes | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 39c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 59c | 29.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…f3b1backed No | 65c | 29.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…c6f7backed No | 45c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…658ebacked No | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e7…6d88backed Yes | 75c | 26.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3438…8179backed No | 65c | 26.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7b…1873backed Yes | 78c | 25.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x693d…9ccfbacked Yes | 75c | 24.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Yes | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…9f8dbacked No | 65c | 23.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40e…a6bfbacked Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda7…67b4backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.32-1.36ºC in March 2025?this page
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.27-1.31ºC in March 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.22ºC in March 2025?No won
- Will global temperature increase by more than 1.41ºC in March 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.