TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5891…2c7c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 56 out of 100; worst Movies at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+88.7%+$51.7
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+54.6%+$77.73
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+47.2%+$162.83
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+117.4%+$178.2
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$73.7
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$252
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.6
Will Trump visit Russia before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.7
Adam Schiff charged with treason before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.9
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$231.58
Will Zelensky wear suit next Trump meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.3
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$428Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+52.9%+$226.37
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$201.07
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.4
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$71.5
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.96
Will Trump increase tariffs on Canada before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$78.1
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$68.2
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.11
Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$126.5
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+124.6%+$108.91
Will 7-8 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's impeachment before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.4
Yoon reinstated as President before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.65
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$29.4
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+113.3%+$202.98
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more between December and June? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$16.8
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$34.1
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water by April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.06
Trump Travel Ban Before May? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.83
Will Donald Trump sign 30 or more executive orders in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$49.2
Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.6
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$129.41
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2025, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+113.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+70.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+69.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenSea airdrop before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$19.8
Will Kanye launch a coin in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.51
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+135.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+135.3%+$65.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bitcoin all time high before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Giants draft Cameron Ward?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$14.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Snow White' gross between 39-44m on opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.