Movies · resolved market
Will 'Snow White' gross between 39-44m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdaa20471a7aa24b33e20e0330f907afef5ba98187a110d2287632da1f1a47a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 70c | 6,782$4,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,017.2 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 45c | 6,431$2,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,876.34 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 53c | 6,162$3,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,925.3 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 59c | 6,051$3,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,469.19 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked Yes | 46c | 5,321$2,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,899.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 33c | 5,076$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,421.3 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 20c | 4,220$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,375.7 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…f15bbacked No | 5c | 3,208$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 2,822$1,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.83 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 58c | 2,282$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.21 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 2,275$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 58c | 2,142$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.6 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 35c | 2,000$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.99 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 56c | 1,827$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.64 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 21c | 1,782$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.82 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,776$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.08 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 42c | 1,435$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.29 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 61c | 1,349$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.06 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 30c | 1,131$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.66 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 54c | 989.43$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.21 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 62c | 736.57$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.01 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Yes | 75c | 698.39$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.39 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 30c | 664$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 31c | 655.97$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.21 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x039d…c23bbacked No | 5c | 622.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 49c | 575.57$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.48 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed No | 54c | 548.9$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.77 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ef…328bbacked No | 58c | 546.5$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55de…aed6backed Yes | 42c | 546.5$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…1794backed No | 4c | 507.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 53c | 497$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.41 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 6c | 419.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 75c | 416.17$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.66 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 43c | 413.14$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.48 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd938…362bbacked No | 5c | 410$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 3c | 409.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 39c | 379.95$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.54 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…5b09backed No | 4c | 344.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2f…b07ebacked No | 34c | 306.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 50c | 294.56$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.28 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 252.7$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.55 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 74c | 252.57$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b3…246abacked Yes | 48c | 199$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 59c | 163.09$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.57 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 33c | 149.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.48 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 48c | 145.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 46c | 143.36$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 57c | 129.75$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 124.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.6 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 34c | 115$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 48c | 100.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…f690backed No | 79c | 99.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…92c0backed No | 50c | 93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 65c | 77.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5891…2c7cbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9597…50babacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 47c | 41.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 31c | 40.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 42c | 31.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bb…f1f3backed Yes | 49c | 30.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…01c2backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 23.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…3c70backed Yes | 78c | 21.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e3…4a48backed Yes | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Snow White' gross between 39-44m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Snow White' gross less than 34m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.