TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$117,203
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,192

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,203 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f65…1592backed Yes39c8,873$3,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,493.413831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes17c6,299$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.012250%11 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+29.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x37c5…b081backed Yes32c6,222$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,989.769441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x712f…9fe6backed Yes57c5,784$3,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,297.918633.7%29 W · 57 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x116f…9210backed Yes39c4,392$1,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,693.410123.8%24 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-35.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68da…ee52backed Yes2c2,996$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89a5…cd84backed Yes22c2,858$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.669932.3%32 W · 67 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes5c2,699$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.085812.1%7 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-44.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes22c2,341$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.423447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99ec…f99ebacked Yes8c2,147$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-84.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c2,118$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.41983.1%3 W · 95 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-89%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes24c1,874$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.441799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No70c1,858$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.3350633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa632…6e7bbacked Yes6c1,740$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes4c1,530$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2332639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…c691backed Yes3c1,479$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-36.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes15c1,430$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.6916350.3%82 W · 81 L+24.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6f03…1794backed Yes3c1,305$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0753…25b2backed Yes19c1,259$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.33625%9 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes3c1,201$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.44411.4%5 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-57.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed Yes6c1,147$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.671286.3%8 W · 120 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No79c1,053$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.118431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes21c999.99$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.7619031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c945.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.09736.8%5 W · 68 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0de4…2d29backed Yes35c916.91$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.432630.8%8 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes4c889.16$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-68.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes27c832.16$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.5813150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes29c813.15$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.497416.2%12 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x792d…c475backed Yes14c810$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.55326.3%2 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-62.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked Yes3c800.8$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.25911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-80.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No33c783.02$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.336127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9de…d8c1backed Yes4c711$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes66c700$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4624134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes18c668.27$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.6267232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a0e…b3f3backed Yes2c645$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d78…5b09backed Yes4c627.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-76.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x109d…f1ddbacked Yes75c611.93$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.45425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+541.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes21c582$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2232739.1%128 W · 199 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26e8…f15bbacked Yes6c561.9$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d0…fbf2backed Yes3c543.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9a…ea13backed Yes72c519.45$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes27c517$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.31442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbe…9664backed Yes5c500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes24c500$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.396132.8%20 W · 41 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3371…5871backed Yes3c482.12$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.05190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes23c475.71$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1119238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a11…6df2backed Yes39c472.51$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.32433.3%8 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-36.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe22…66b3backed Yes7c450$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7175.9%1 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-79.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed Yes64c437.05$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.27022.9%16 W · 54 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-33.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes23c416.03$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.593619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47f8…2ebdbacked Yes4c408$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb288…fa0fbacked Yes5c407.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7715…7191backed Yes4c407$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes29c406.64$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9311625.9%30 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes19c400$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.928422.6%19 W · 65 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb34…1800backed Yes4c387$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3575…8249backed Yes4c342$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c2…67b1backed Yes4c330.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8247…d8ccbacked No21c288.35$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.7916040%64 W · 96 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No27c285.79$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.927020%14 W · 56 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes78c284.99$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.291353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick68cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff2f…b07ebacked Yes5c278.66$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+47.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaaa…fd78backed Yes75c267.23$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes21c254$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.344131.7%13 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42e6…8e78backed Yes6c253.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.77860.3%47 W · 31 L+7.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3826…84efbacked Yes23c250$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577414.9%11 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c4…812fbacked Yes19c246.67$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4650%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No75c243.42$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.563240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed Yes41c208.31$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.482330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.8wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-43.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2591…b527backed Yes5c200.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d2d…46abbacked Yes9c199.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa090…c736backed Yes63c185$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed Yes54c175.36$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.013964.1%25 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed4f…b1bebacked Yes28c175.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd713…4662backed Yes26c148.02$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.281145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x001a…3c70backed Yes14c140.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c26…9a9bbacked Yes10c114.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1150%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x145a…ccdabacked Yes27c111.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-53.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1602…cbf7backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1517041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked Yes20c99.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick39cpaid-68.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3ff…60aebacked Yes20c97.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No31c88.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.151,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No36c82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3948414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes17c80$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.223041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.419836.4%72 W · 126 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c37…c8f0backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17a5…6173backed No46c40.96$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda3…1478backed Yes61c30.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c29.43$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6536538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcae…78fabacked Yes61c27.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadcc…aa70backed No44c27.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d3…a093backed Yes62c26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18ea…1a48backed Yes68c23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.642462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5afa…3c07backed Yes61c20.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67e6…92c0backed Yes51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcec6…7566backed Yes70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.