TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb6d3…a093

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
70
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Tennis, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tennis at 56 out of 100; worst World Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Music Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-22.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.13
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.59
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$26.14
Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+28.6%+$4.73
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$22
Will Estonia finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
Will France finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.59
Will Greece qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+26.9%+$74.24
Will Luxembourg qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$836Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$264
Will Denmark qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$126
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$942Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+27.4%+$257.99
Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Will anyone say "COVID" during the 2nd Democratic Mayoral Primary on June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$3.15
Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "AI / Artificial Intelligence" during the press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$11.82
Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Mars" during the press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+150%+$174
Will courts block Trump's tariffs by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.9
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,306Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$1,305.56
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 0-4backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$36.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-33.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$348Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+43.7%+$152
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,070Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,069.79
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$631Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+27.4%+$172.76
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$694Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$693.5
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$73
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,020Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+27%+$275.41
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+37%+$135
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+67.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Giants vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$15
Commanders vs. Packersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$19
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+63.9%+$38.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Sep 8, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2024, EDT+49.3%+$33
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.