Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Mars" during the press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7f7eff2fdfdb4fbd98e039abfa602179e3e1f3303d4ea12e78cb3c143014da3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 57c | 3,605$2,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.78 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 43c | 1,937$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.94 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0e78…e415backed Yes | 41c | 1,535$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 57c | 1,409$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.17 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…c807backed Yes | 43c | 863.21$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 42c | 794.21$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.43 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 54c | 722.97$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.37 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 57c | 400.01$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.61 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed Yes | 45c | 300$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.25 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…68c3backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…ba38backed Yes | 47c | 279.98$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 62c | 245$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.4 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 53c | 190.92$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Yes | 41c | 185.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 55c | 181.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.21 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | +8.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 60c | 137.64$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4964…4fddbacked Yes | 38c | 134.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cc…4da3backed Yes | 50c | 131.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 130.3$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 121$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed No | 60c | 111$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 60c | 110.2$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 46c | 105.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712a…76b1backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x89b0…8512backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f2…695cbacked Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Yes | 40c | 54.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes | 48c | 54.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…c586backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…1aa0backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed No | 59c | 47.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…4786backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 59c | 40.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7d…7e36backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4d…f7dbbacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9593…7411backed No | 66c | 30.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x869a…f6b7backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…a093backed No | 59c | 18.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Mars" during the press conference?this page
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "AI / Artificial Intelligence" during the press conference?No won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Air Force One" during the press conference?No won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Altman" during the press conference?No won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Autism / Autistic" during the press conference?No won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Biden" during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during the press conference?No won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "DOGE" 5+ times during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Genius" during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Harvard" during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "IQ" during the press conference?No won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 10+ times during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Rocket" during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Tesla" during the press conference?No won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Trump" 3+ times during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "White Genocide" during the press conference?No won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Woke" during the press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.