Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "DOGE" 5+ times during the press conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3017fc0b216020f9ac8859ff48e0367208c8f640ec61c6aa9ca7b2adc8d41dc

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $143,366
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $144,491

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,366 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc851…cd2abacked No	15c	64,248$9,622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,622.05	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed No	15c	3,122$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.3	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-4.8wins	-0.20per pick	49cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7504…9c69backed No	24c	1,221$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.05	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-2.6wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	116	12.9%15 W · 101 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No	16c	920$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.2	161	44.7%72 W · 89 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked No	15c	700.67$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.44	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No	22c	660$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.99	119	36.1%43 W · 76 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d44…c828backed No	22c	599.99$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.95	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed No	17c	435.66$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.42	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked Yes	77c	405.3$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.52	24	70.8%17 W · 7 L	+5.7wins	+0.24per pick	47cpaid	+57.8%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No	22c	387.18$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.24	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes	78c	350$273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77	45	57.8%26 W · 19 L	+3.7wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No	22c	333$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.26	150	32.7%49 W · 101 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0978…00e6backed Yes	79c	330$259 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.8	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-4.8wins	-0.25per pick	57cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	16c	300$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	235	43.8%103 W · 132 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No	16c	249.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No	12c	220$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	175	44.6%78 W · 97 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb572…9239backed No	17c	177.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x346c…a160backed No	19c	170$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.1	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa290…872fbacked No	21c	168.64$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.52	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	14c	150.65$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.4	963	19.8%191 W · 772 L	-32.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes	77c	150$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.5	34	44.1%15 W · 19 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No	26c	120$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.4	142	8.5%12 W · 130 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2848…08f6backed No	17c	114.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed No	21c	110$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No	19c	106.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.14	96	41.7%40 W · 56 L	-3.9wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	17c	106$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.54	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x869a…f6b7backed No	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes	77c	104.35$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	127	36.2%46 W · 81 L	-17.3wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xd1a5…c139backed No	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+2.5wins	+0.18per pick	25cpaid	+60.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	95	35.8%34 W · 61 L	-6.6wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6fc…f4e1backed No	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x278f…715fbacked No	20c	90$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-3.2wins	-0.14per pick	55cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x493b…763abacked No	19c	78.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	19c	61$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.82	1,136	6.3%72 W · 1,064 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2544…156bbacked No	18c	57$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.26	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb0…afdcbacked No	19c	56.58$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b4d…f7dbbacked Yes	80c	21$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5042…fcb0backed Yes	80c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	38	55.3%21 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "DOGE" 5+ times during the press conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event