Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Trump" 3+ times during the press conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x696c6cd4c4c26ab926e60898f39368f91c1cfbebe04a99632c5f987319260ce0

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $23,149
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,149 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb270…ed57backed No	0c	14,396$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	116	12.9%15 W · 101 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No	28c	566.79$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.46	175	44.6%78 W · 97 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No	7c	515.73$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.1	150	32.7%49 W · 101 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed No	42c	386.68$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.16	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes	70c	325$229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.25	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-4.9wins	-0.16per pick	35cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes	21c	200$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158	81	42%34 W · 47 L	+7.7wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2fbc…4f9dbacked Yes	78c	168$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.96	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-3.8wins	-0.17per pick	58cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed No	69c	167$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.23	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x91d7…2f8abacked No	70c	150$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dc8…89b6backed Yes	75c	133.81$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.81	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes	27c	120.14$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.27	80	20%16 W · 64 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-27%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No	37c	113.87$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	130	46.9%61 W · 69 L	+10.2wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf34a…1e22backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.22per pick	18cpaid	+140%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	69c	100$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed No	57c	95$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.2	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-5.0wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	59c	90$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.8	235	43.8%103 W · 132 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…fcb9backed Yes	74c	86.21$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.41	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.9wins	+0.63per pick	37cpaid	+397.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xabac…c337backed No	24c	64.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24bd…3f74backed Yes	79c	62$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.16	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x101c…4392backed Yes	72c	55.6$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+63.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No	79c	52$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.08	161	44.7%72 W · 89 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc70e…7cd6backed Yes	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No	26c	50$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	95	46.3%44 W · 51 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb75…2efdbacked Yes	45c	28.01$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.4	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes	56c	26.67$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.75	131	45.8%60 W · 71 L	+8.0wins	+0.06per pick	40cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	72c	15.71$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.4	377	40.6%153 W · 224 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Trump" 3+ times during the press conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event