Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Tesla" during the press conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x878e4bd7e5c22dbd146d6e9ae419930db5ecc16200972da04a79167349e413de

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $8,943
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,943 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5091…23e9backed No	19c	890$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$723.75	95	35.8%34 W · 61 L	-6.6wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	2c	886.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.74	116	12.9%15 W · 101 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes	79c	653.75$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.15	45	57.8%26 W · 19 L	+3.7wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No	34c	622.66$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$411.31	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No	21c	454.7$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$360.55	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed No	16c	420.04$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350.77	80	20%16 W · 64 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-27%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No	19c	357.16$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290.85	119	36.1%43 W · 76 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d44…c828backed No	16c	250$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…da90backed Yes	74c	150$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.41per pick	66cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes	23c	131.79$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.61	59	28.8%17 W · 42 L	+6.6wins	+0.11per pick	18cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f1c…4e67backed No	18c	110$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf960…ba50backed No	24c	110$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.6	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed No	27c	100$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed No	15c	93.33$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.33	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdba6…79d3backed No	20c	79.91$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.91	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.80per pick	20cpaid	+399.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb5e…af8dbacked Yes	76c	70$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.4	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94cd…0eeebacked No	20c	60$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No	23c	55.27$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.53	175	44.6%78 W · 97 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No	60c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	147	42.9%63 W · 84 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+48.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb75…2efdbacked Yes	60c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No	23c	47.83$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.83	149	40.9%61 W · 88 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes	79c	40$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.6	173	55.5%96 W · 77 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No	77c	40$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	150	32.7%49 W · 101 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes	80c	37.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	165	44.8%74 W · 91 L	+10.9wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked No	79c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.2	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes	74c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-4.9wins	-0.16per pick	35cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb02b…6350backed Yes	80c	12.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	79cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Tesla" during the press conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event