TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Genius" during the press conference?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,023 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb270…ed57backed No0c44,720$50 inLost-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed No11c650$72 inLost-$71.55028%14 W · 36 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-43.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No43c500$216 inLost-$215.819535.8%34 W · 61 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes63c495$311 inWon+$184.417544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes60c166.67$100 inWon+$66.6715243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07b9…db98backed No44c131$58 inLost-$57.982951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes68c120.9$82 inWon+$39.1116854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No51c116.36$59 inLost-$5914742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No32c100$32 inLost-$3269634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked No24c100$24 inLost-$245653.6%30 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No40c96.67$39 inLost-$38.671,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes61c52.46$32 inWon+$20.46714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-76.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d7d…7e36backed Yes62c50$31 inWon+$19850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d44…c828backed No40c47.87$19 inLost-$19.15728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2848…08f6backed No46c43.59$20 inLost-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a53…9a25backed Yes62c32.34$20 inWon+$12.34540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf48b…62e4backed Yes62c32.26$20 inWon+$12.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f4a…1f4cbacked Yes60c30$18 inWon+$12683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed No38c30$11 inLost-$11.43360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No34c29.99$10 inLost-$10.211854.2%64 W · 54 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1dd1…070dbacked Yes68c29.41$20 inWon+$9.41250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes56c20$11 inWon+$8.817355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.