TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Harvard" during the press conference?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,172 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6828…1056backed Yes51c152.86$78 inWon+$75.118445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes11c150$17 inWon+$133.55928.8%17 W · 42 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+80.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes57c132.59$76 inWon+$56.3916854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x26cc…4da3backed Yes61c108.92$66 inWon+$42.67560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes33c94.47$31 inWon+$63.416618.2%12 W · 54 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No50c71$36 inLost-$35.51,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No38c57.26$22 inLost-$21.7617544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked No40c57.25$23 inLost-$22.94221.4%9 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick29cpaid+2.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7e6…2b17backed No42c51.83$22 inLost-$21.934360.5%26 W · 17 L+6.0wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+26.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes59c50$30 inWon+$20.514742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed No41c50$21 inLost-$20.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbcbf…4ffabacked No50c50$25 inLost-$251675%12 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+38.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf960…ba50backed No59c45$27 inLost-$26.552147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x278f…715fbacked Yes46c40$19 inWon+$21.52240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-29.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed No54c33.62$18 inLost-$18616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…6209backed Yes62c32.26$20 inWon+$12.26666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No39c30$12 inLost-$11.71723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-46.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d7d…7e36backed No57c30$17 inLost-$17850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5042…dec3backed Yes62c25$16 inWon+$9.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No45c25$11 inLost-$11.259535.8%34 W · 61 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5233…33b4backed Yes60c21.83$13 inWon+$8.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed No75c20$15 inLost-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick67cpaid-51.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32fb…49c7backed No75c19.44$15 inLost-$14.5830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.