Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Rocket" during the press conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11e78fcd7cf02a0dcb11b676067bfec021caee7a7898b400d6d71338d8ab044d

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,721
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,830

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,721 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc851…cd2abacked No	49c	2,249$1,092 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,092.02	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes	51c	2,010$1,025 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$985	87	50.6%44 W · 43 L	+10.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	116	12.9%15 W · 101 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No	3c	416$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.48	111	20.7%23 W · 88 L	+10.9wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+212.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No	48c	280$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	95	35.8%34 W · 61 L	-6.6wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed No	46c	155$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.88	80	20%16 W · 64 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-27%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No	44c	138.51$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.59	175	44.6%78 W · 97 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b0…8512backed Yes	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes	43c	99.99$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+2.3wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	42c	99.99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.99	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	55c	95$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.75	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes	59c	51.05$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.05	125	45.6%57 W · 68 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	-3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	377	40.6%153 W · 224 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf34a…1e22backed Yes	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.22per pick	18cpaid	+140%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes	55c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	95	46.3%44 W · 51 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7d…7e36backed Yes	49c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f2…695cbacked Yes	58c	43.1$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.1	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.21per pick	39cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes	58c	34.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.48	165	44.8%74 W · 91 L	+10.9wins	+0.07per pick	38cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb572…9239backed Yes	59c	33.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.13per pick	37cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a5…c139backed Yes	55c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.5	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+2.5wins	+0.18per pick	25cpaid	+60.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f4a…1f4cbacked Yes	58c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.6	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.3wins	+0.22per pick	61cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43f8…2903backed Yes	58c	30$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.6	84	47.6%40 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes	47c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	193	48.2%93 W · 100 L	+8.1wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed No	64c	25$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.33per pick	67cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No	50c	25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	88	39.8%35 W · 53 L	+8.6wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	+141.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes	55c	22.27$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	173	55.5%96 W · 77 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94f8…30aabacked Yes	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.07per pick	26cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Rocket" during the press conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event