Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Woke" during the press conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e7a1cccc970d0afb4cf23be7a91692223714151003bb2b5a99fd15799247d26

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,740

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,868 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	2c	750$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	116	12.9%15 W · 101 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd08f…9ecfbacked Yes	34c	749.8$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.48	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	34cpaid	-74.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No	70c	591.23$414 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.48	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No	65c	456.37$299 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$157.52	219	35.2%77 W · 142 L	+8.8wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked No	77c	360$276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.73	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	70cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes	12c	331.62$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.76	66	18.2%12 W · 54 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-46%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes	33c	278.62$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.94	126	49.2%62 W · 64 L	+10.5wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No	67c	199.98$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.99	161	44.7%72 W · 89 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No	73c	192$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.88	147	42.9%63 W · 84 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+48.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1e…75edbacked No	63c	183.12$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.08	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a53…9a25backed Yes	40c	176.3$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No	68c	147.06$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.06	74	73%54 W · 20 L	+12.8wins	+0.17per pick	56cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes	34c	141.75$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.75	175	44.6%78 W · 97 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	67c	100$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed No	65c	100$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.21per pick	39cpaid	+93.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79f4…4afbbacked Yes	35c	92.64$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.42	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-3.2wins	-0.29per pick	38cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x82c3…490bbacked No	66c	64.31$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.97	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+51.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	70c	62.7$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.63	235	43.8%103 W · 132 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked Yes	38c	62.64$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.55	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	+6.0wins	+0.11per pick	43cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x869a…f6b7backed No	64c	62.5$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	50cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No	69c	50$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.5	178	50%89 W · 89 L	+8.7wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcbf…4ffabacked No	65c	50$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.5	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+2.7wins	+0.17per pick	58cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No	67c	40$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.2	173	55.5%96 W · 77 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5042…dec3backed Yes	36c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No	67c	29.5$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.88	95	46.3%44 W · 51 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6147…d34ebacked No	71c	20.57$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.97	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-14%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Yes	61c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.33per pick	67cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Woke" during the press conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event