Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Biden" during the press conference?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84b536e827d8e8752ce9bb5c65c042d90be78de866ac98e5ebd90d12d7468133

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 30, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,267

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,013 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes	74c	1,849$1,373 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$475.69	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-4.9wins	-0.16per pick	35cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	116	12.9%15 W · 101 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No	22c	1,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.02	95	35.8%34 W · 61 L	-6.6wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4dc8…89b6backed Yes	79c	633.49$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.49	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No	24c	463.16$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.03	180	33.3%60 W · 120 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x008a…21a8backed Yes	74c	389.73$287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.81	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd08f…9ecfbacked No	23c	380.4$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	34cpaid	-74.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed No	20c	368.49$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.87	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes	72c	342.88$246 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.72	175	44.6%78 W · 97 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Yes	71c	337.44$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.57	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	+2.9wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	+94.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No	29c	333$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.57	68	38.2%26 W · 42 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No	20c	288.39$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.75	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd0c…b4bbbacked Yes	80c	270$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+58.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d44…c828backed No	30c	250$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	77c	197$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf75a…3e62backed No	24c	161.88$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.28	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes	75c	133.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.33	74	73%54 W · 20 L	+12.8wins	+0.17per pick	56cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed No	25c	133.33$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.33	75	56%42 W · 33 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No	22c	108.41$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	126	49.2%62 W · 64 L	+10.5wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	75c	100$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46a6…8c21backed No	25c	97.14$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.29	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	27c	89.39$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.89	235	43.8%103 W · 132 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69a0…e5f6backed No	24c	83.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ead…9f00backed No	31c	64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No	18c	63.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.52	77	39%30 W · 47 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	76c	60$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.4	196	38.8%76 W · 120 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24bd…3f74backed Yes	75c	60$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes	76c	51.74$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	95	46.3%44 W · 51 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes	56c	50$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	81	42%34 W · 47 L	+7.7wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d7d…7e36backed No	33c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcbf…4ffabacked Yes	76c	50$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+2.7wins	+0.17per pick	58cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x278f…715fbacked Yes	72c	45$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.8	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-3.2wins	-0.14per pick	55cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No	28c	40$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	150	32.7%49 W · 101 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes	78c	40$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.8	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+4.6wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No	25c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	73	43.8%32 W · 41 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb75…2efdbacked Yes	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes	77c	39.99$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9	173	55.5%96 W · 77 L	+8.8wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed No	32c	31.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Biden" during the press conference?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event