TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during the press conference?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,373
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,741

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,373 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes2c900$20 inLost-$19.511612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Yes15c600$90 inLost-$903737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+94.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c05…4a58backed Yes9c541.92$50 inLost-$50.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x267c…9b16backed Yes15c502.93$75 inLost-$75.442425%6 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-50.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes12c378.42$45 inLost-$44.685817.2%10 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9394…37dabacked Yes17c322$54 inLost-$54.121225%3 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-54.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf75a…3e62backed Yes17c264.71$45 inLost-$4550%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa7c…f70ebacked Yes16c224.79$36 inLost-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa81d…6547backed Yes16c192.55$30 inLost-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc17…f3c4backed Yes16c187.63$30 inLost-$30.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x548a…a498backed Yes12c180$21 inLost-$20.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes15c166.67$25 inLost-$25119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x741f…f6cabacked Yes16c163$26 inLost-$26.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Yes12c154.55$19 inLost-$18.55616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fd7…468ebacked Yes12c150$18 inLost-$1850%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb572…9239backed Yes20c148.73$30 inLost-$304339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3bc8…0b6cbacked Yes15c133.33$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d07…293fbacked Yes14c132.31$19 inLost-$19616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+114.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf34a…1e22backed Yes15c120$18 inLost-$18540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+140%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2aae…cb22backed Yes20c105$21 inLost-$20.71643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-30.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x712a…76b1backed Yes18c100$18 inLost-$18425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27c8…79ecbacked Yes18c84.44$15 inLost-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9de…b193backed Yes18c83.33$15 inLost-$151118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d7…8de8backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b4d…f7dbbacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost-$10955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1c8…7a83backed Yes17c60$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.