TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "IQ" during the press conference?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,433
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,661

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,433 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost-$2011612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost-$308750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes62c312.46$193 inLost-$193.3117544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes39c258$102 inLost-$101.6513145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked No63c240$152 inWon+$885843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No30c205$62 inWon+$142.859535.8%34 W · 61 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No52c198.07$103 inWon+$95.0718445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes25c122.78$31 inLost-$30.694630.4%14 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes48c100$48 inLost-$4869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x46a6…8c21backed No60c100$60 inWon+$401040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes35c100$35 inLost-$353119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.9wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No75c85$64 inWon+$21.2514940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc70e…7cd6backed No70c46.89$33 inWon+$14.07933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-52.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x034c…af51backed No75c40$30 inWon+$102100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d7d…7e36backed Yes35c40$14 inLost-$14850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb572…9239backed Yes56c35.89$20 inLost-$204339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No69c35$24 inWon+$10.856750.7%34 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed No57c30$17 inWon+$12.91723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-46.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed No44c25.89$11 inWon+$14.53360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.