Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "AI / Artificial Intelligence" during the press conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb82ccb9a03d4ef453b968d689ea3c68b9ca8c6a10dad9616991f76f08696e82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d17…76b0backed No | 47c | 34,524$16,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,297.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…3752backed Yes | 53c | 34,524$18,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,297.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 54c | 1,332$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.47 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 56c | 1,285$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.68 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 46c | 1,176$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.95 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 46c | 695.12$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.34 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 46c | 611.27$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.53 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 59c | 525$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.75 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 46c | 500$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…8acbbacked Yes | 58c | 460$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 44c | 424$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.6 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 55c | 360.91$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.9 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d44…c828backed No | 43c | 299.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…74d6backed Yes | 55c | 293.1$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 54c | 274.91$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.75 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…db98backed No | 44c | 257.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd7…468ebacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…ede5backed Yes | 57c | 174.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 60c | 158.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 53c | 158.21$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…1e22backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +140%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 43c | 150$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 42c | 139.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cc…4da3backed Yes | 59c | 112.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 105.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 43c | 99.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed Yes | 74c | 93.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 52c | 93.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…33c1backed Yes | 58c | 85.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aae…cb22backed No | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…2c1ebacked Yes | 63c | 63.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…793cbacked Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27c8…79ecbacked Yes | 64c | 58.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 45c | 52.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a4…d4c9backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +10.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7d…7e36backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b0…8512backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…a093backed No | 75c | 47.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6b…2f6abacked Yes | 55c | 36.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a3…1f07backed Yes | 62c | 31.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…2b17backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +6.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…8b0ebacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…8269backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "AI / Artificial Intelligence" during the press conference?this page
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Air Force One" during the press conference?No won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Altman" during the press conference?No won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Autism / Autistic" during the press conference?No won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Biden" during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Big Beautiful Bill" during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during the press conference?No won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "DOGE" 5+ times during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Genius" during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Harvard" during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "IQ" during the press conference?No won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Mars" during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 10+ times during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Rocket" during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Tesla" during the press conference?No won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Trump" 3+ times during the press conference?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "White Genocide" during the press conference?No won
- Will Donald Trump or Elon Musk Say "Woke" during the press conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.