TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,532
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$63,866

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,532 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x94c4…43cabacked No70c22,430$15,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,809.536144.3%27 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Yes26c13,056$3,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,440.193141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+205.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes31c8,503$2,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,612.914835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fce…a98fbacked Yes48c2,120$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d2c…c88fbacked Yes38c1,632$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+40.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No72c1,552$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.255343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+75.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No72c1,506$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.96339.7%25 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2f…2bc6backed Yes27c1,381$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37350%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87fd…66bcbacked No75c1,250$938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+73%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ad8…cd62backed Yes36c1,130$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.232437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-36%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4b…1fb3backed No57c1,107$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.013100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2236…6e0cbacked No52c1,105$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.011154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes28c1,099$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.863737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90ec…62aabacked No57c1,043$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.49580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes25c984$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7e…275ebacked No57c975$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ec…998cbacked Yes32c934.37$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1220…741abacked No66c929$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.86475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6537…fcecbacked Yes34c929$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No77c928.03$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.246253.2%33 W · 29 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa23d…da1fbacked Yes27c921.48$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.82334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-25.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf84f…5c5cbacked No62c834.22$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.221526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick41cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa304…b075backed Yes27c804.78$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.291952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+24.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f07…0170backed Yes27c801.3$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.33525.7%9 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e0b…4e72backed Yes28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes29c700$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.63528.6%10 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked No52c694.25$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.975743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…8bf6backed Yes43c694$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fbf…7328backed Yes43c667$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.8140%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb976…c213backed Yes43c657$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.51825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf50f…ccc1backed No71c565.34$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked No74c561.73$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.0514661%89 W · 57 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes28c549.56$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.8222927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes28c544.76$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507139.4%28 W · 43 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked Yes29c525$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.174746.8%22 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No73c524.55$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.042934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed No74c503.7$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.373625%9 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c76…06acbacked Yes26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301520%3 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No72c500$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1383256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4ba…0f36backed Yes37c485.51$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.61540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes35c471.66$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.97407.5%3 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick12cpaid+345.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb177…7ea0backed Yes30c453.45$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes32c433.15$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.796520%13 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes35c403.97$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.0810235.3%36 W · 66 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a5…56cbbacked No70c394.45$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.975633.9%19 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-39.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xde9c…b418backed Yes43c389$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.27333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed Yes43c365$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.95540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb33c…6634backed Yes27c364.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59e4…4536backed Yes34c358.38$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.43520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb83e…10fcbacked Yes43c353$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8dd…9b5abacked No69c342.49$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.794148.8%20 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked No71c324.03$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.973545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No58c322.11$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.743348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked No73c316$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.329335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf75d…55d2backed Yes31c312.83$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes26c300.01$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.519939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes25c266$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No68c262.05$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.928342.2%35 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6bf…c7acbacked Yes32c260$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.16926.1%18 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+136.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e6a…fdc0backed Yes31c257.75$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803013.3%4 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick25cpaid+21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed Yes38c250$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Yes31c236$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.293026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8304…667bbacked Yes45c220.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd7f…35c1backed Yes38c214.28$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.031717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes46c211$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.065131.4%16 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2571…3bcfbacked Yes29c200.62$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96aa…c145backed Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58130%0 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed No50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+92.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked Yes29c179.23$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.773151.6%16 W · 15 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e3f…32a4backed Yes24c179$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.961513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick18cpaid+7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes28c168.94$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.638128.4%23 W · 58 L-10.7wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-50%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd378…19e8backed Yes29c156.06$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked No72c149.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…5495backed Yes29c148.28$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9240%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f50…1701backed Yes29c145$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-69.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7975…f4a2backed No69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe1a…6bccbacked No71c142.76$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.84933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-53.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x81e9…1812backed No73c142.2$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.394835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes29c142$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.763243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes30c137.05$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.881553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes32c137$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.434348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7e9…4b5fbacked No68c132.98$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.981090%9 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick67cpaid+36.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes31c131.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.297121.1%15 W · 56 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes27c127.64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.735349.1%26 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97c3…c524backed Yes10c127.61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.173053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e55…c88dbacked Yes33c126.37$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.172138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fed…a1f9backed Yes27c124.23$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.91346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes34c123.8$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.371225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f2…1cc8backed Yes38c118.42$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5087…ded0backed Yes28c117.17$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed No66c112$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.084654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ad…1538backed Yes27c111.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46ef…a342backed Yes29c109.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6750%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aac…dcebbacked Yes27c108.19$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…e8a4backed Yes27c105.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5875%6 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.43per pick32cpaid+871.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes38c105.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.992317.4%4 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-70%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x73c8…dec4backed Yes28c103.52$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.281921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.