Music · resolved market
Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b4d2f3e0de163d28b2e742157d6c63b0b3b1de9fa734f5160295241be7b02f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $150,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $150,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe72b…b0a0backed No | 15c | 42,162$6,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,183.31 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…7abdbacked No | 12c | 27,965$3,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,447.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf344…9a04backed No | 8c | 13,635$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed No | 7c | 10,277$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd44…f151backed No | 7c | 3,412$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 80c | 2,020$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.02 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 9c | 1,411$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.34 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…7967backed No | 3c | 1,319$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 20c | 1,280$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.05 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc817…7980backed No | 7c | 1,091$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 4c | 950.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecde…c846backed No | 22c | 916.93$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.09 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked No | 19c | 823$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed No | 20c | 800$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.45 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed No | 11c | 736.96$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 13c | 717.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 19c | 633.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.41 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes | 78c | 602$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 5c | 575.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +353%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd7…047abacked No | 6c | 430.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 18c | 420.34$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked No | 21c | 402$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…f184backed No | 14c | 391.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 22c | 386.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +213.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 4c | 368.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 4c | 345.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked No | 6c | 334.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked No | 22c | 314.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked No | 22c | 311$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdece…08dbbacked No | 22c | 292$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 78c | 290$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…41f6backed No | 22c | 289$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes | 79c | 282$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48e…b476backed No | 19c | 269.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed No | 4c | 257.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed No | 6c | 256.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…fdc0backed No | 19c | 252.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…32a4backed No | 6c | 237.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf968…84bdbacked No | 15c | 236.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 20c | 223.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…4dc9backed No | 7c | 222.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…c88dbacked No | 18c | 210$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed Yes | 79c | 209$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 45cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 17c | 204.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12b8…479cbacked Yes | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 8c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…da1fbacked No | 7c | 170.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed No | 19c | 160.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed No | 20c | 157.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c28…a1eabacked No | 10c | 149.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35da…6d0fbacked Yes | 75c | 145.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…b20fbacked Yes | 76c | 132.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a5…56cbbacked No | 19c | 127.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 65c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 19c | 109$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 21c | 106.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 14c | 101$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…8e91backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…232fbacked No | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed No | 21c | 89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…eb44backed No | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd04…15ffbacked No | 20c | 67.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 74c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…4563backed Yes | 80c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?this page
- Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Azerbaijan advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.