Music · resolved market
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a6263bb69dc658d7f013e8649461a76d162783d1366397dbae16fc6bc204973
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,878
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed No | 2c | 7,182$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 2c | 5,789$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.3 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed No | 2c | 4,846$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.88 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 3c | 3,745$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…bb84backed No | 2c | 2,733$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +323%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 2c | 1,857$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 2c | 1,216$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 128 | 35.9%46 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 2c | 1,203$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 2c | 800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…72fabacked No | 3c | 606.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed No | 2c | 530.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…3be1backed No | 3c | 371.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +414.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed No | 3c | 354.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 296.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…fdc0backed No | 8c | 291.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…151dbacked No | 4c | 253.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…6b2dbacked No | 7c | 211$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked No | 7c | 153$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?this page
- Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Azerbaijan advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.