Music · resolved market
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1257822687d9dfb189c8d93c7704d6efc1e4df5d3b74f1d2329741eca01d1f22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,679
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 2c | 2,600$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…0170backed No | 3c | 2,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70ef…0cdebacked No | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 13c | 929.74$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.28 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed No | 16c | 844$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +172%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed No | 16c | 838$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed No | 47c | 641.51$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.85 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dab…5a9dbacked No | 2c | 636.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 2c | 618.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73af…b880backed No | 41c | 508.1$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.29 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed No | 2c | 505.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 13c | 502.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed No | 3c | 499.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…4a36backed No | 6c | 482.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed No | 50c | 427$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed No | 50c | 422$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 78c | 399$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.82 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 57c | 390$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…32a4backed No | 4c | 385.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd7…047abacked No | 3c | 365.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe309…44c2backed Yes | 50c | 344$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7170…ed44backed Yes | 50c | 342$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 21c | 334$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…91fdbacked Yes | 50c | 334$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc6…411fbacked Yes | 67c | 330.33$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.33 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…1701backed No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 281.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…151dbacked No | 4c | 260.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…d950backed No | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 242.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66bd…0328backed Yes | 56c | 195.04$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca0…e17abacked Yes | 49c | 184.02$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.93 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 21c | 177$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3702…829dbacked No | 50c | 171$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 12c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…3eaabacked No | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 80c | 112$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…b20fbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…b43fbacked Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0a…b3b5backed No | 17c | 76.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3d…fea1backed Yes | 53c | 74.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…8f45backed Yes | 57c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +202.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed No | 46c | 22.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?this page
- Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Azerbaijan advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
- Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?No won
- Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.