TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,414
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$67,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,414 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x94c4…43cabacked Yes29c7,979$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,278.916144.3%27 W · 34 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes26c3,417$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902.2914315.4%22 W · 121 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+353%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No72c2,381$1,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.212934.5%10 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked No72c2,337$1,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.75743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed No79c1,943$1,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.593135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36b8…ac4cbacked Yes36c1,943$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.48520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-70.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Yes36c1,883$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.881764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+69.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x20f7…5527backed Yes24c1,882$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.195819%11 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No69c1,795$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.83348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No77c1,746$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.595343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+75.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes23c1,716$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39622927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb212…0f8ebacked No64c1,530$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked Yes26c1,319$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.79922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-61.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked No74c1,284$948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.6714661%89 W · 57 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Yes21c1,267$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.43141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+205.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed No75c1,252$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.192867.9%19 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+61.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1620…f529backed Yes33c1,169$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.16028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e48…95c7backed No79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No51c988.8$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.256253.2%33 W · 29 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf65…b793backed Yes30c950.44$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.34425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-61.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…24efbacked No64c949$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.64560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+69.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c3…9cefbacked No64c934$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+97.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2de8…293cbacked No64c921$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0aec…fdafbacked No64c875$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f07…0170backed Yes23c870.68$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.353525.7%9 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-58.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked Yes26c858.21$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.799335.5%33 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6ef…095ebacked No49c846$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.46540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ff1…98d7backed Yes35c833.37$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.381050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f5…b750backed Yes36c766$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.76520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-73%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd824…528bbacked Yes36c764$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No75c752$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1882755.6%15 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x73af…b880backed No68c738.69$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.271855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+9.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8727…83d7backed No63c731$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked No70c692.35$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.81464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes48c692.05$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.713545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e0b…4e72backed No74c671.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.861266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked No64c668$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9941…7fd9backed Yes36c624$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8de5…9416backed Yes36c608$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.88425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick56cpaid-65.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3087…f8fbbacked No64c601$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.36475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+137.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes36c564$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06a2…8015backed No74c540.54$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Yes26c526.66$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.81752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+127.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes38c524.83$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.95046%23 W · 27 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No63c521.69$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.0219939.2%78 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc825…6696backed No79c509.18$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.182152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.8wins+0.13per pick39cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf08e…c7e9backed No70c481.28$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed No75c457.1$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.273560%21 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+213.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x66a5…56cbbacked Yes36c452.16$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.785633.9%19 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-39.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes23c444$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1210235.3%36 W · 66 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ec…998cbacked No69c434.78$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.781060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4825…f3a3backed No73c413.42$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.425100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1128140.7%33 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe3f9…84f3backed No75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63b1…1676backed No70c400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+35.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a9b…b6ecbacked Yes28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed No69c349.97$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.243625%9 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes32c346.8$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.982450%12 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9163…82aebacked Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784042.5%17 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x521a…d12fbacked No79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes28c289.16$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.765349.1%26 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56d4…9c57backed No60c286.34$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.542835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf141…d9aabacked No73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.97425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-65.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed No46c272.16$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.814835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No68c269.98$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.394955.1%27 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes37c257$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5282…82fcbacked Yes31c245.44$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-76.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes29c244.92$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.17407.5%3 W · 37 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick12cpaid+345.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes37c240$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked Yes37c234$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7975…f4a2backed No72c227.93$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.93683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+19.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes21c223.25$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.737121.1%15 W · 56 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes25c213.02$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.264129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a2f…2bc6backed Yes24c208.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes50c203$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.57145.1%32 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9055…756abacked No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64ba…b7bfbacked No74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527425.7%19 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…3c52backed Yes28c199.75$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b4…592fbacked Yes36c191.89$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7090%0 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No70c185.94$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.235131.4%16 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e7…4450backed No71c182.89$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.04450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes21c177.14$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.23737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No77c174.7$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.345930.5%18 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-38.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x557a…9f70backed Yes51c172$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.72520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-74.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c3c…4169backed Yes25c158.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.63540%14 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Yes21c153.95$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.983026.7%8 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x482d…ba5ebacked No65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.852157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes36c153$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.084654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c28…ba30backed Yes25c152.51$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.28771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No64c152$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.724042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7982…86c4backed No56c150.12$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.761546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed No64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked No71c150$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.53243.8%14 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes28c150$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.883528.6%10 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes36c149$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.644339.5%17 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81e9…1812backed Yes27c140.45$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.114835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd654…75e7backed Yes31c137$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+26.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6468…41bebacked No73c135.73$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-77.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.