TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

French Open: Alcaraz vs. Sinner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Alcarazof Alcaraz, Sinner
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,447,553
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,434,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,447,553 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 321 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x98b1…d855backed Alcaraz26c169,715$44,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124,893.752045%9 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+22.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Alcaraz60c117,421$70,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,807.261533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Alcaraz46c85,893$39,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,215.312347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Sinner 44c69,326$30,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,709.0616242%68 W · 94 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Sinner 72c43,653$31,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,386.975545.5%25 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Alcaraz40c35,000$14,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,860.31414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-47.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f02…b943backed Sinner 72c26,097$18,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,800.02250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Alcaraz79c23,126$18,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,880.1139144.2%173 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x264c…8250backed Sinner 68c23,081$15,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,707.571457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Sinner 36c18,887$6,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,851.788023.8%19 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Alcaraz64c16,377$10,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,920.12580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+119.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Alcaraz76c16,224$12,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,866.913458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc40…4036backed Alcaraz42c16,075$6,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,317.911866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe807…8922backed Sinner 17c14,700$2,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,498.92333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Sinner 52c14,000$7,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,219.994047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf892…7f58backed Sinner 50c13,551$6,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,775.671127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-52.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc9c8…44fbbacked Sinner 24c13,428$3,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,227.949826.5%26 W · 72 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-33%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Sinner 56c11,921$6,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,664.326,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Alcaraz50c11,901$5,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,950.511230.4%34 W · 78 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Alcaraz48c10,142$4,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,245.359130.8%28 W · 63 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1484…cafebacked Alcaraz15c9,953$1,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,460.054548.9%22 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Alcaraz49c9,337$4,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,761.83935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Sinner 62c8,487$5,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,227.0510046%46 W · 54 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2cd…bb91backed Alcaraz39c8,161$3,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,987.34757.4%27 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Alcaraz48c8,081$3,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,170.89728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-49.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Alcaraz49c8,000$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,079.972445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Sinner 50c7,614$3,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,784.639137.4%34 W · 57 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e3…ce1fbacked Sinner 62c7,020$4,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,335.77850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sinner 51c6,816$3,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,448.121,03954.6%567 W · 472 L+37.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe79b…0fe0backed Sinner 0c6,061$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Sinner 49c5,950$2,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,925.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7502…beafbacked Alcaraz51c5,679$2,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,782.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+61.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Sinner 50c5,358$2,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,678.82334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7456…5148backed Alcaraz47c5,122$2,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7142429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a62…57cabacked Alcaraz32c5,023$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,393.373540%14 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Sinner 50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50017823%41 W · 137 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Alcaraz53c4,998$2,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,351.8260053.8%323 W · 277 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8704…4b8dbacked Alcaraz53c4,745$2,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.55616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-68.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e7a…6f28backed Alcaraz34c4,508$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,983.182737%10 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Sinner 52c4,272$2,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,226.4428543.5%124 W · 161 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Sinner 52c4,167$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,161.9328043.2%121 W · 159 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc79…a504backed Alcaraz50c4,164$2,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,082.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Sinner 28c4,082$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.782524%6 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d18…b702backed Sinner 66c3,955$2,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,607.1720%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed Alcaraz18c3,813$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.547639.1%186 W · 290 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Sinner 51c3,800$1,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,93872452.6%381 W · 343 L+34.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Alcaraz11c3,483$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,082.754555.6%25 W · 20 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Sinner 67c3,420$2,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,286.246254.8%34 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Sinner 52c3,362$1,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,747.314345.5%65 W · 78 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e19…95dabacked Alcaraz43c3,250$1,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,862.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd200…06b1backed Alcaraz40c3,157$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.93100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+317.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Sinner 51c3,061$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.223732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Sinner 67c3,061$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,060.838231.7%26 W · 56 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16e3…22d5backed Sinner 50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed Alcaraz29c3,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.9666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+68.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Alcaraz47c2,886$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.011,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Alcaraz35c2,876$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,875.9514549%71 W · 74 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Sinner 69c2,800$1,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,93260055.7%334 W · 266 L+2.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Alcaraz63c2,800$1,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0357955.7%44 W · 35 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ce48backed Sinner 51c2,688$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3719742.3%41 W · 56 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Alcaraz48c2,682$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394.893158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Sinner 52c2,600$1,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,340.8213253.8%71 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Sinner 75c2,585$1,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,944.552751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+41.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Alcaraz33c2,404$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.4366831.3%209 W · 459 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Sinner 52c2,377$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.8313356.4%75 W · 58 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Alcaraz43c2,347$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.77475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed Sinner 13c2,216$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.181118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd60d…57bfbacked Sinner 20c2,208$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.432516%4 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-74.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Sinner 79c2,000$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,58011956.3%67 W · 52 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Sinner 50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007147.9%34 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Alcaraz48c2,000$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03022344.8%100 W · 123 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Sinner 51c1,888$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.6395140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b7d…5403backed Alcaraz53c1,871$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.742100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fd5…d06bbacked Alcaraz49c1,859$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.884723.4%11 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-24.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x366c…6578backed Alcaraz14c1,812$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.123265.6%21 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+36.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x76fc…e0bdbacked Alcaraz29c1,701$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.844030%12 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7b3…246abacked Alcaraz61c1,626$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.571855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Sinner 1c1,590$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.732437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2360…1c1cbacked Alcaraz33c1,520$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.228831.8%28 W · 60 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-21.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd313…a320backed Alcaraz49c1,490$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.8862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick39cpaid+50%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82ee…d8e2backed Alcaraz40c1,483$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.411241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Alcaraz49c1,473$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.4914933.6%50 W · 99 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Alcaraz48c1,460$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.3912231.1%38 W · 84 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8406…0176backed Alcaraz18c1,439$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.6610654.7%58 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe23…3038backed Alcaraz50c1,400$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf094…6fd5backed Sinner 58c1,281$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.871450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aaa…0c04backed Alcaraz54c1,258$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.7714343.4%62 W · 81 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9325…a85abacked Alcaraz50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2c…c1f5backed Alcaraz50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5327…3b80backed Alcaraz16c1,180$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98712038.3%46 W · 74 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f36…4e9cbacked Sinner 10c1,165$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.411233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-50.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Alcaraz55c1,020$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.636338.1%24 W · 39 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd22e…cb68backed Alcaraz69c1,013$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89dc…e209backed Alcaraz49c1,010$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.072138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked Sinner 52c1,009$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.811040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Sinner 52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52081938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Alcaraz50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5008348.2%40 W · 43 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcdb6…9452backed Alcaraz21c1,000$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7901330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed Sinner 51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+58.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Sinner 51c1,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.