Commodities · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x265a3b26257a298caad9712ac84cadcec5d084ad01e45d7f22c764a21c2d23e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $283,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $264,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x436f…2c7fbacked No | 63c | 27,029$16,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,990.44 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 30c | 25,266$7,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,770.24 | 119 | 21%25 W · 94 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a54…4a03backed Yes | 34c | 16,408$5,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,867.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…c577backed No | 0c | 12,081$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…6ca1backed Yes | 38c | 10,000$3,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,192.07 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed No | 61c | 10,000$6,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 9,850$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 22c | 7,637$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,978.37 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 75c | 5,803$4,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.73 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 20c | 5,075$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,064.32 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7420…26e2backed No | 65c | 4,484$2,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,905.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 30c | 4,412$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,093.03 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 75c | 4,369$3,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.56 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b56…715ebacked No | 66c | 3,633$2,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,391.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 62c | 3,385$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,083.25 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 40c | 3,320$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,996.14 | 94 | 8.5%8 W · 86 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 2c | 3,012$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.40per pick | 24cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,855$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d18…1160backed No | 80c | 2,500$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -57%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…dde5backed No | 71c | 2,405$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,695.58 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Yes | 13c | 2,404$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,087.09 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.9wins | +0.54per pick | 35cpaid | +218.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bb…d499backed No | 79c | 2,400$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f4…24a5backed No | 3c | 2,372$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…f729backed No | 30c | 2,312$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 2c | 2,008$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…c158backed No | 4c | 2,005$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 22c | 1,981$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,549.26 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…caebbacked Yes | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f06…c174backed No | 65c | 1,912$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 37c | 1,864$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.01 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 35c | 1,802$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.77 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed Yes | 16c | 1,739$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9d…8201backed Yes | 35c | 1,559$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.23 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed Yes | 21c | 1,498$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97d0…1b67backed No | 67c | 1,497$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 78c | 1,470$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 24c | 1,426$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.49 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…1cc6backed No | 62c | 1,415$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 1,400$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.96 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 26c | 1,394$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.45 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 28c | 1,330$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.4 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.36per pick | 55cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 1,311$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9904…5ac8backed Yes | 18c | 1,280$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 1,250$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.54 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 64c | 1,064$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.05 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed Yes | 30c | 1,005$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2426…d3e5backed No | 66c | 1,003$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed No | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe312…e0b2backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c9…628fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +171.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked No | 79c | 999.99$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed Yes | 35c | 993.43$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.43 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked No | 65c | 853.58$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.81 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 6c | 818.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…c327backed No | 62c | 812.55$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked No | 60c | 805$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.75 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…2f0ebacked No | 57c | 796.96$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf159…00eebacked No | 3c | 753.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 24c | 720$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.23 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63af…3438backed Yes | 31c | 700$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +59%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…8efebacked No | 72c | 691.32$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92b2…c8d0backed Yes | 27c | 672.22$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 51c | 657.57$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.21 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…ea58backed No | 58c | 655.84$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.57 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 42c | 655.2$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.42 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 641.02$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 19c | 634.68$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.05 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 17c | 626.57$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.57 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 28c | 620.92$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 19c | 619.99$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.79 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6506…e40cbacked No | 48c | 608.98$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…9bf5backed Yes | 34c | 600$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be8…b383backed Yes | 17c | 592.12$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +187.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 18c | 562.49$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 11c | 555$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.77 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 56c | 532.35$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.91 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked Yes | 24c | 523.33$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked No | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…f43dbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 20c | 496.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.91 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 485.36$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…5014backed No | 68c | 483.58$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 463.77$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.78 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 4c | 446.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b56…2ee5backed Yes | 18c | 444.07$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 43c | 442$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.95 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 66c | 429.79$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.32 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 425$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ee…9edcbacked Yes | 28c | 417.07$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…c076backed Yes | 18c | 416.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +254.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b88…86c4backed No | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0621…13d1backed Yes | 43c | 399.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7f…15dfbacked No | 55c | 395.84$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 26c | 389.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.69 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af0…45fabacked No | 5c | 389.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 59c | 382.98$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.74 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.