Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37a570f13c5e78f85eef34de2430736e15691dca8f5820946388bc15b9d956e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,313,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,760,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,313,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe64f…44a5backed Yes | 52c | 300,172$157,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143,163.14 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…a3f8backed No | 21c | 182,237$38,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,063.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed No | 13c | 171,069$22,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,299.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed Yes | 38c | 112,295$42,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,914.92 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 78c | 79,139$61,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,556.46 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 17c | 76,121$12,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,678.9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked No | 6c | 70,499$4,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,120.06 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 18c | 66,738$11,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,973.58 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 58c | 61,526$35,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,580.09 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 54c | 57,644$31,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,224.79 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d1…599dbacked No | 29c | 56,755$16,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,535.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 33c | 53,153$17,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,706.09 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 54c | 52,412$28,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,331.22 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 78c | 48,460$37,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,867.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…b5f3backed No | 6c | 44,482$2,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,448.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 22c | 42,912$9,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,557.65 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 69c | 41,647$28,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,842.91 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Yes | 43c | 40,000$17,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,799.98 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed No | 7c | 38,629$2,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,866.3 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 41c | 36,737$15,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,672.73 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cf…42abbacked No | 5c | 34,740$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,741.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…6b20backed Yes | 58c | 34,676$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,676.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 40c | 33,097$13,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,958.71 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed Yes | 28c | 32,937$9,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,842.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +213.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…ce7bbacked No | 11c | 32,779$3,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,690.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…121bbacked No | 72c | 32,518$23,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,476.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked No | 58c | 31,494$18,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,406.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…313dbacked No | 13c | 29,235$3,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,797.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 35c | 27,129$9,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,543.85 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…c1f3backed No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 41c | 25,000$10,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,178.05 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 24c | 24,995$6,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,013.83 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked No | 0c | 24,100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc116…6f0abacked No | 8c | 24,098$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 11c | 22,250$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,367.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…9ec2backed No | 64c | 20,550$13,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,050.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 46c | 20,139$9,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,182.05 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed No | 10c | 19,168$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 6c | 17,800$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.26 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…6a40backed No | 9c | 17,788$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 6c | 17,320$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 36c | 17,300$6,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,300.54 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 57c | 17,253$9,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,430.24 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a9…dd8dbacked Yes | 35c | 15,285$5,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,964.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes | 60c | 15,005$8,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,047.37 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb31c…c1c3backed No | 6c | 14,908$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 53c | 13,937$7,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,511.84 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc964…11a7backed No | 10c | 13,788$1,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,338.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…6600backed Yes | 51c | 13,778$7,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,771.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b6…94fcbacked No | 9c | 13,674$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 61c | 13,346$8,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,179.18 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e4…1009backed Yes | 50c | 13,222$6,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,634.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 20c | 13,187$2,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,674.71 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x569e…67dbbacked No | 66c | 12,934$8,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,506.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 24c | 12,808$3,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,013.85 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…eb4fbacked No | 1c | 12,404$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 56c | 12,246$6,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,864.8 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…7ad5backed No | 13c | 12,071$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e7…fa67backed No | 0c | 11,994$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5c…53ddbacked No | 0c | 11,918$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 12c | 11,774$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.71 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7328backed Yes | 59c | 11,641$6,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,822.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…acb7backed Yes | 68c | 11,468$7,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,721.26 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 78c | 11,125$8,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,461.88 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked No | 7c | 10,940$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 27c | 10,900$2,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,967.77 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac0…041fbacked No | 6c | 10,877$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 71c | 10,695$7,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,541.88 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…6358backed No | 1c | 10,628$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a28…3ca9backed No | 44c | 10,370$4,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,552.9 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed No | 10c | 10,228$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0752…c474backed No | 6c | 10,131$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 41c | 10,117$4,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,157.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…43e8backed No | 52c | 10,000$5,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,196.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…730bbacked No | 9c | 10,000$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed No | 44c | 9,988$4,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,409.77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebc5…61fdbacked Yes | 60c | 9,907$5,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,947.95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 63c | 9,824$6,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,223.03 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1dc…7283backed No | 5c | 9,700$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.97 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c34…026fbacked No | 18c | 9,624$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 44c | 9,332$4,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,245.93 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc1…6a67backed Yes | 51c | 9,301$4,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,581.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…5535backed No | 59c | 9,095$5,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,326.47 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…ced9backed Yes | 34c | 8,931$3,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,892.97 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked No | 55c | 8,576$4,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,732.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2803…0dd7backed Yes | 42c | 8,467$3,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,872.26 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785c…42cdbacked No | 23c | 8,381$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,923.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4c…54e7backed No | 7c | 8,321$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked No | 54c | 8,320$4,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,473.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd049…5de7backed Yes | 29c | 8,261$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,860.77 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d72…cca4backed No | 14c | 7,906$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed No | 37c | 7,711$2,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,868.82 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 31c | 7,642$2,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350.82 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 59c | 7,629$4,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,501.27 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…ec52backed No | 10c | 7,495$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.7 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 64c | 7,492$4,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,775.93 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed No | 64c | 7,328$4,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,667.73 | 115 | 59.1%68 W · 47 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…a8b7backed Yes | 52c | 7,049$3,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,374.02 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 28c | 7,045$1,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.28 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.