TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$120,435
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,471

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,435 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 207 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes29c5,228$1,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.074259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No64c4,499$2,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.045240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa130…b662backed Yes20c3,231$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed Yes39c2,829$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.265135.3%18 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7494…6e0bbacked Yes18c2,767$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.591241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+58.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes30c2,475$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.3712630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd477…12b4backed Yes21c2,351$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes14c2,172$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30016544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes10c2,086$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.277244.4%32 W · 40 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes16c2,054$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.2428320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes21c1,874$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.125616.1%9 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes15c1,862$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.6218725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No56c1,754$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.0223149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked Yes18c1,752$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.635843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf572…09f2backed No66c1,718$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.36119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed No79c1,416$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.151464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-12.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8af5…36afbacked Yes16c1,317$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.02922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick15cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Yes29c1,245$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.05560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+93.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes15c1,208$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.1521935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7131…29ccbacked Yes68c1,208$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.151118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No75c1,125$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.922347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes11c1,077$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.51195.3%1 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick22cpaid-92.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes54c1,071$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.2210950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xec97…6bedbacked Yes11c947.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No74c888.74$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.865349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c864.7$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.371,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No79c863.42$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.442369.6%16 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1c7…2ef5backed Yes24c841.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb011…2d13backed Yes20c825.58$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.371233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes10c812.94$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9518322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aad…18f4backed Yes31c750$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No71c743$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.499347.3%44 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed Yes24c722.7$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.181631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No64c713.45$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.0714460.4%87 W · 57 L+16.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes39c685.34$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.5113943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a49…7447backed Yes18c613.64$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.643129%9 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-49.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes18c603.43$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.192934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No79c598.04$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.687254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e11…b846backed Yes17c560$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.21942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+55.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x071a…d310backed Yes18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc8…e458backed Yes37c538.07$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6df…e674backed Yes20c522.1$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22c6…cf2abacked Yes26c519.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.11637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd07…aba3backed Yes39c512.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb04…faf0backed No79c504.48$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick74cpaid-58%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed No78c500.69$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.252263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fc2…e3f4backed No77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1152075%15 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+78.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0484…a23ebacked No60c499.99$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001540%6 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No77c499.99$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11515238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8add…fc2abacked Yes36c497.73$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.19862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No74c454$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.9837844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb7d5…df70backed Yes9c445.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes20c415.66$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7796319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x288e…9ca7backed Yes23c400$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648226.8%22 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed Yes18c398.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.825158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f7a…5015backed Yes13c397.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.95119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid+130.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes13c390.72$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.795736.8%21 W · 36 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9cf…69fdbacked Yes21c376.54$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11fc…dc48backed Yes14c370.45$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.86616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-71.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7660…9d88backed Yes19c362.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes34c352.6$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91e1…1282backed No78c351.32$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.321560%9 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3e…cd54backed Yes35c340.79$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d74…ee45backed Yes17c340.27$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.854436.4%16 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes18c330$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.121634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked No60c325$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.812245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdca…62e8backed Yes23c322.48$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed No65c320.54$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.592646.2%12 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f7a…ef1abacked No63c318.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…7cb2backed Yes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes17c299.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5219328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6111…c02fbacked Yes35c282.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick35cpaid+80.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccda…4937backed Yes36c280.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid+47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf960…ba50backed Yes25c270$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.352147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes11c266.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9656733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xddca…41c5backed Yes19c262.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2c4…4ee2backed No77c259.87$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.12475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes41c250$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.55742.1%24 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4254…b486backed Yes41c242.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed No69c240$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.63935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ca1…3378backed Yes43c240$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.22633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-44%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x989b…d3b0backed No62c240$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.1742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae5c…53ddbacked Yes22c239.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed No80c232.63$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f39…27a5backed Yes44c229.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No74c228.95$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6317544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0fa…0a56backed Yes44c225.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+41.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa852…1edcbacked Yes23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6c…287fbacked Yes48c210.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick52cpaid-64.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes8c202$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.854936.7%18 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7377…6414backed Yes33c200$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448529.4%25 W · 60 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18ab…bae4backed Yes44c199.99$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+81.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c184.01$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.041,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0843…1e7cbacked Yes56c179.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf75a…3e62backed Yes19c170.45$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7950%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0100…c58abacked Yes18c167.12$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x189d…147cbacked No80c162.56$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.56366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick80cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes27c152.59$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-8.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.