TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0cc8…e458

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
108
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: UFC, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category UFC at 52 out of 100; worst MLB at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT8634.9%30 W · 56 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 86 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$7,839Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,838.96
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$530Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$530
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.04
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 205.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,606Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,606.07
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+58.7%+$15.3
Mavericks vs. Sunsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$102.88
Hornets vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$616Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$616.5
Wizards vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,658Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$1,657.85
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$9,980Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$9,980.13
Cavaliers vs. Clippersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,148Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+65.4%+$1,405.12
Nuggets vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,504Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+58.7%+$883.13
Spread: Warriors (-4.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$4,131Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+100%+$4,131.47
Nuggets vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,884Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+53.8%+$1,553.05
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$271.47
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$91.9
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will the Thunder beat the Timberwolves 4-2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Thunder vs. Timberwolvesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$240
Knicks win and Brunson scores 30+ points? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$487Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$486.63
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Showing 25 of 86 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$363Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+47.6%+$173.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$41.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will David Portnoy launch a coin in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$13.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kansas City Royals vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,314Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,314
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.