Us Politics · resolved market
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d7ae15efa864227cf5a1dbaac67a0340e3680b00bd9b42eefd44a22296a8d6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $346,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $368,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $346,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed No | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…a2e8backed No | 10c | 23,258$2,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…f38abacked No | 1c | 22,993$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…7620backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…e458backed No | 8c | 11,227$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8556…fad9backed No | 13c | 8,059$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.02 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf347…9e9dbacked No | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bc…b904backed No | 5c | 5,929$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…3e75backed No | 14c | 5,364$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 24c | 5,008$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,197.52 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 10c | 3,785$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.33 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…ae42backed No | 1c | 3,099$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 22c | 3,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18a2…a2dcbacked No | 1c | 2,809$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 4c | 2,601$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.37 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 32c | 2,152$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.51 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 7c | 1,930$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.44 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 10c | 1,874$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 6c | 1,795$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.75 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…9d93backed No | 6c | 1,566$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 6c | 1,484$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.79 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3844…3ca3backed No | 10c | 1,125$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa979…0615backed No | 10c | 1,119$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc09c…682ebacked No | 12c | 1,100$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc001…4b7cbacked Yes | 69c | 1,003$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…1342backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 6c | 1,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 69c | 1,000$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…0409backed No | 9c | 949.44$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 70c | 811.27$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd1…2265backed No | 2c | 780$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ba…a98fbacked No | 9c | 777.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…4d84backed No | 3c | 749.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d25…fe20backed No | 33c | 743.92$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b2…a321backed No | 9c | 741.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410e…53a1backed No | 10c | 717.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ff…4d30backed No | 18c | 710$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78dd…ed8fbacked No | 39c | 710$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 9c | 708.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked No | 5c | 684.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…858abacked Yes | 73c | 670.59$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…f4e5backed No | 3c | 665.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…fe06backed No | 2c | 664.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 3c | 644$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…455fbacked No | 9c | 642.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…0019backed No | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed No | 17c | 603.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +156%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 9c | 600.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 8c | 555$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d35…f929backed Yes | 71c | 550$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…39e3backed No | 10c | 504.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed No | 11c | 499.9$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 65c | 499.13$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed No | 17c | 497.5$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x552c…be63backed No | 6c | 450$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +440.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…62c5backed No | 23c | 446.93$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +239.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 5c | 424.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…0667backed No | 29c | 416.42$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…9051backed No | 10c | 401.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01cf…a424backed No | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 8c | 396.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc25…8ecfbacked No | 29c | 392.53$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 7c | 370.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0e…3a2abacked No | 10c | 368.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…7249backed No | 32c | 335.91$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088c…1590backed No | 11c | 331.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…f1e1backed No | 9c | 329.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…23cabacked No | 5c | 314.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 67c | 311.33$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4a…8982backed No | 6c | 307.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…a4d2backed No | 10c | 302.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…e1dabacked No | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 33c | 300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e50…6cd4backed No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed No | 12c | 299.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes | 80c | 298.73$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa2…c957backed No | 11c | 293.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 9c | 289.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 40c | 286.09$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.46 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 10c | 285.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0a…40e3backed No | 14c | 285$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f6debacked No | 9c | 268.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbf…3faebacked No | 35c | 261.54$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283e…4293backed No | 8c | 260.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 15c | 244.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…4501backed No | 17c | 241.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked No | 30c | 229.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed No | 7c | 226.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16e…9b03backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…5b45backed No | 33c | 218.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187a…2798backed No | 9c | 217.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2d…4fa5backed Yes | 67c | 216.73$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…473bbacked No | 6c | 213.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…ebadbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…ba8abacked No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…1e7fbacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b49…d151backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd8…abc7backed No | 10c | 194.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.