TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x01cf…a424

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
76
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst CS2 at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST2520%5 W · 20 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+669.2%+$87
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$61.6
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$121.8
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+172.2%+$338.54
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$379.35
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+96.8%+$164.81
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$16.24
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$18.28
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$64.15
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+62.9%+$75.65
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$24.96
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10.91
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10.9
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15.33
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+339%+$95.75
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$10.19
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$14.74
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$21.35
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25.4
All 25 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST1855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-Inbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$29.2
LoL: DRX vs OKSavingsBank BRION (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-Inbacked DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+31.6%+$12
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$22.36
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$27.6
LoL: Shifters vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seasonbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+28.7%+$4.46
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Seasonbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$8
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+29.9%+$6.9
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$15.5
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+37%+$8.1
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+37%+$5.4
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Seasonbacked Team Secret Whales · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$6.3
LoL: Team Heretics vs GIANTX (BO1)backed Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+77.3%+$14.93
LoL: Top Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3)backed Weibo Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$10.2
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$16.34
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+98.8%+$41.69
Games Total: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$22.4
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winnerbacked DN Freecs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$36.34
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs - Game 1 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$31.43
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST1080%8 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+29.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
76ers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+143.9%+$17.7
Spurs vs. Mavericksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+29.9%+$6.9
Nuggets vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+58.7%+$7.4
Suns vs. Trail Blazersbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+66.7%+$8
76ers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$12.6
Timberwolves vs. Grizzliesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$17.9
Rockets vs. Pacersbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+33.3%+$5
Magic vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+39.9%+$5.7
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+35.1%+$5.2
Hawks vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+88.7%+$9.4
All 10 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maple Leafs vs. Oilersbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+63.9%+$7.8
Penguins vs. Islandersbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15.6
Blue Jackets vs. Devilsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+29.9%+$4.6
Canadiens vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+44.9%+$6.2
Islanders vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+37%+$5.4
All 5 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-51.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+48.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+28.2%+$6.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gov Shutdown Odds >90% Friday Night (12-1 AM)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$36.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of February 2 above $355?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$24.79
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.