Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb44e63b37ed73f1ce8e69a8ed4f894e27ca7dcaf2b112f0e16876c1c07d1f390

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $928,497
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $531,846

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $928,497 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 401 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	48,892$776 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$776.38	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	2c	20,400$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.2	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	14c	16,778$2,316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,315.56	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	15,844$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.82	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	5c	10,730$539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.55	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	5c	10,578$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476.87	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	10,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	14c	9,786$1,399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,399.32	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	16c	9,731$1,586 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,585.86	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	11c	8,433$959 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$959.25	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	11c	8,423$910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$910.23	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	8,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	4c	6,794$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.81	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	6,700$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.93	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d7…95d0backed Yes	17c	6,430$1,093 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,093.16	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	6,317$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.67	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	5c	6,183$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.38	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	6,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	12c	5,926$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720.45	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	8c	5,791$446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.33	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	5,615$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.93	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	12c	5,378$672 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$672	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	3c	5,286$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.17	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	80c	5,258$4,204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,054.09	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa59e…2b99backed Yes	25c	4,961$1,248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,248.11	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de9…ed09backed Yes	3c	4,885$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-59%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	4,884$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.07	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	11c	4,305$493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.3	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	4,227$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	19c	4,025$765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$765	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	4,005$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	14cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	11c	3,950$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.73	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	3,889$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.04	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	7c	3,755$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.53	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	3,600$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.05	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	3,599$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.9	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes	4c	3,569$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.25	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	22c	3,340$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$719.75	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes	11c	3,330$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.43	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,310$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.23	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c37…9906backed Yes	0c	3,127$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	20c	2,725$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$539.85	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0899…2bc6backed Yes	1c	2,700$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.99	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	5c	2,686$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	1c	2,681$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.81	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	1c	2,500$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	8c	2,485$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.4	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	9c	2,479$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.38	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	3c	2,321$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.95	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	2,293$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.31	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1af3…2ddcbacked Yes	13c	2,269$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	6c	2,238$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.99	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes	9c	2,231$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	12c	2,136$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.31	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	7c	2,131$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.24	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	18c	2,114$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.38	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6189…8f69backed Yes	5c	2,039$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.82	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	7c	2,033$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.02	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d1…2206backed Yes	8c	2,018$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.91	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	19c	2,000$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.5	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	79c	1,983$1,570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$412.94	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	1,950$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	7c	1,939$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.89	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x731d…edb9backed No	76c	1,903$1,452 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$450.88	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	4c	1,900$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.7	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaddf…5a9dbacked Yes	24c	1,900$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	7c	1,897$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.69	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	5c	1,843$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187c…8708backed Yes	1c	1,750$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	2c	1,748$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.03	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82f7…7c3bbacked Yes	10c	1,739$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.44	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	12c	1,737$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.05	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	5c	1,715$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.51	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	1c	1,710$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	1,696$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.68	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	1,673$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.88	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e1…d8dabacked Yes	20c	1,637$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	79c	1,600$1,269 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$331.4	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9331…4b41backed Yes	24c	1,586$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.58	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	+43.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	8c	1,500$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34aa…980abacked Yes	21c	1,464$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.39	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes	10c	1,394$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.88	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	5c	1,393$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.24	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd1…babcbacked Yes	1c	1,391$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.07	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3786…c390backed Yes	1c	1,376$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes	3c	1,360$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.66	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	1,356$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.02	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe583…2d98backed Yes	1c	1,333$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.09	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	1,315$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.7	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8221…9207backed Yes	2c	1,305$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	15c	1,293$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.49	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes	8c	1,291$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.43	69	20.3%14 W · 55 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+207.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	26c	1,280$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.02	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	17c	1,270$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda1d…6192backed Yes	23c	1,263$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.41	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	-5.1wins	-0.16per pick	35cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	6c	1,236$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.08	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	19c	1,217$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.19	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x716b…e163backed Yes	9c	1,169$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.02	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	1,163$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.26	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	19c	1,157$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.73	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event